Subseasonal climate variability and prediction

亚季节时间尺度是指从一周到一个季节的时间尺度。一个有用的超过一周的天气预报具有相当大的社会经济价值。本研究的长期目标是提高对大气变率的认识，为大气条件的亚季节预报提供基础，包括极端风、降水和气温的概率。未来5年，我们将重点研究北半球特别是加拿大亚季节气候变率的关键过程。特别是，我们将研究热带-温带相互作用和大气远相关。我们还旨在量化温带大气的分季节预报技能，特别关注加拿大，确定可预测性的限制，并确定熟练的分季节预报的机会。将使用来自不同来源的全球观测数据，包括广泛的卫星观测数据。不同复杂程度的数值模型将被用来模拟过程，对物理机制进行诊断分析，并进行预测实验。预计这项工作将澄清与亚季节变率有关的一些重要问题，并有助于发展加拿大的亚季节天气预报能力。

The subseasonal time scale refers to that ranging from a week to a season. A useful weather forecast beyond a week is of considerable socio-economic value. The long-term objective of this research is to improve the understanding of the atmospheric variability that provides a basis for subseasonal forecasting of atmospheric conditions including the probability of extreme winds, precipitation, and air temperature. In the next five years we propose to focus on key processes in the subseasonal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere especially over Canada. In particular, we will study the tropical-extratropical interactions, and atmospheric teleconnections. We also aim to quantify subseasonal forecast skill in the extratropical atmosphere, with a particular focus on Canada, determine the limits of predictability, and identify opportunities for skillful subseasonal forecasts. Global observational data from different sources including extensive satellite observations are to be used. Numerical models with different complexities are to be utilized to simulate the processes, perform diagnostic analyses for physical mechanisms, and conduct forecast experiments. It is expected that this work will clarify some important issues related to subseasonal variability, and contribute to the development of subseasonal weather forecasting capability in Canada.