The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions.

我的研究计划的长期目标是了解为什么一些外来植物物种比其他物种更成功地在其引进范围内建立大量种群。该项目的短期目标是：(1)利用网络上可用的数据库构建外来植物成功的简单预测模型；(2)确定为什么道路网络对外来范围内的植物物种传播如此重要，而对其本地范围却没有作用；(3)通过对欧亚水蛉的详细研究，继续我对水生植物入侵动态的研究。以下几个假设将被验证：(1)本土范围大的物种很可能成为入侵物种；(2)欧洲和美国道路系统之间存在一些根本的差异，这些差异解释了入侵者的成功；(3)水蛉的入侵更多地与垂钓者的活动有关，而不是与环境特征有关。为了彻底测试本地范围范围和外来植物成功之间的联系，我建议使用几个可用的在线数据库重建物种的空间分布，并计算从欧洲引入北美的物种的本地范围范围和外来范围范围之间的统计相关性（反之亦然）。对于研究计划的第二部分，我建议测试几个已经开发出来的模型，这些模型用于预测道路沿线入侵植物的存在，包括该物种的引进和本地范围。将在加蒂诺河流域研究水千叶虫入侵的动态，在那里，水千叶虫在少营养湖泊中迅速扩张。分子技术将用于确定基因型和量化湖泊内部和湖泊之间的遗传多样性。垂钓者的行为（他们何时何地钓鱼）也将被彻底调查。将开发综合基因型、水质特征、景观指标和垂钓者数据的模型，预测加蒂诺河流域湖泊中水银鱼的存在和丰富程度。这项研究计划将对生物入侵科学的发展产生重大影响，无论是在加拿大和国外，在更广泛的背景下，植物生物地理学。

The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others for establishing large populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives of the program are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants using databases available on the web, (2) determine why road networks are so important for the spread of plant species in their exotic range but not in their native range, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic plant invaders through a detailed study on Eurasian watermilfoil. Several hypotheses will be tested: (1) species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, (2) there are some fundamental differences between European and American road systems that explain the success of invaders, and (3) the invasion of watermilfoil is more associated to the movements of anglers than to environmental characteristics. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range and the success of exotic plants, I propose to reconstruct the spatial distribution of species using several databases available online, and to calculate statistical correlations between the extent of the native range and that of the exotic range for species introduced in North America from Europe (and vice-versa). For the second part of the research program, I propose to test several models that have been developed to predict the presence of invasive plants along roads, both in the introduced and native ranges of the species. The dynamics of the watermilfoil invasion will be studied in the Gatineau River valley where the invader is rapidly expanding in oligotrophic lakes. Molecular techniques will be used to identify genotypes and to quantify genetic diversity, within and among lakes. The behaviour of anglers (where and when do they fish) will also be thoroughly investigated. Models predicting the presence and abundance of watermilfoil in lakes of the Gatineau River valley, integrating genotypes, water quality characteristics, landscape metrics and data on anglers will be developed. This research program will have a significant impact on the development of the science of biological invasions, both in Canada and abroad and, in a broader context, of plant biogeography.