The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions.

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The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others for establishing large populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives of the program are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants using databases available on the web, (2) determine why road networks are so important for the spread of plant species in their exotic range but not in their native range, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic plant invaders through a detailed study on Eurasian watermilfoil. Several hypotheses will be tested: (1) species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, (2) there are some fundamental differences between European and American road systems that explain the success of invaders, and (3) the invasion of watermilfoil is more associated to the movements of anglers than to environmental characteristics. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range and the success of exotic plants, I propose to reconstruct the spatial distribution of species using several databases available online, and to calculate statistical correlations between the extent of the native range and that of the exotic range for species introduced in North America from Europe (and vice-versa). For the second part of the research program, I propose to test several models that have been developed to predict the presence of invasive plants along roads, both in the introduced and native ranges of the species. The dynamics of the watermilfoil invasion will be studied in the Gatineau River valley where the invader is rapidly expanding in oligotrophic lakes. Molecular techniques will be used to identify genotypes and to quantify genetic diversity, within and among lakes. The behaviour of anglers (where and when do they fish) will also be thoroughly investigated. Models predicting the presence and abundance of watermilfoil in lakes of the Gatineau River valley, integrating genotypes, water quality characteristics, landscape metrics and data on anglers will be developed. This research program will have a significant impact on the development of the science of biological invasions, both in Canada and abroad and, in a broader context, of plant biogeography.