The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions

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The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others in establishing populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants, (2) determine why roadsides are so important as habitats for invasive plant species in some parts of their native/exotic range but not in others, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic invaders through a detailed study of plant populations of a large lake that is undergoing major environmental change. I hypothesize that species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, especially if residence time, climate tolerance and the phylogenetic structure of the pool of species examined are taken into account. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range (Eurasia) and the success of introduced plants (North America), I propose to use plant atlases and herbaria as data sources. I also hypothesize that the success of several invasive species in Québec is in large part explained by a resource (roadsides wider and more disturbed) that is less available in Europe. In other words, the question is not the native/exotic dichotomy; the question is more aptly contextualized as whether there is access to a critical resource (habitat). Models predicting the presence of four invasive species along Québec roads will be tested in France where the same species are also found on roadsides. Finally, I intend to conduct a spatiotemporal study of recent and ongoing plant invasions of Lake St. Pierre. This site is at risk for plant invasions due to climate warming: the emergent mudflats resulting from drought conditions are especially invasion prone. However, which exotic or native species have or will take advantage of the low water levels remains to be determined. I hypothesize that plants invading mudflats have a particular suite of traits enabling them to exploit the changing environment, such traits being independent of the native/exotic status. Surveys of plant populations of Lake St. Pierre and detailed analyses of plant traits will be conducted to identify traits discriminating species having invaded mudflats from others.