Predicting rapid intensity change of hurricanes

预测飓风强度的快速变化

• 批准号: 386435-2010
• 负责人: Chen, Yongsheng
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: York University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=507641
• 关键词: Predicting; rapid; intensity; change; hurricanes

Hurricanes, also named tropical cyclones in general, are the most violent and destructive weather phenomenon. Hurricanes have regularly resulted in annual economic losses exceeding $10 billions per year in the U.S. alone in the past decade. When a hurricane moves to higher latitudes, it can still pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities by producing intense rainfall, large waves, and strong winds. Accurate predictions of hurricanes are thus crucial to alleviate the costs. The track forecasts of hurricanes have been steadily improved over the last several decades. However, predicting their intensities, in particular the rapid intensity changes, remains a grand challenge. Better understanding of the mechanisms governing rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in hurricanes is essential for improving the intensity forecast. We propose to study the dynamics and predictability of the hurricane rapid intensity change using observations, and numerical simulations of idealized and real hurricanes.

飓风，通常也被称为热带气旋，是最猛烈和最具破坏性的天气现象。在过去的十年中，飓风经常导致美国每年超过100亿美元的经济损失。当飓风移动到高纬度地区时，它仍然可以通过产生强烈的降雨，巨浪和强风对陆地和海上活动构成严重威胁。因此，准确预测飓风对减少费用至关重要。在过去的几十年里，飓风的轨迹预报一直在稳步改善。然而，预测它们的强度，特别是快速的强度变化，仍然是一个巨大的挑战。更好地了解飓风强度快速变化（增强和减弱）的机制对于改进强度预报至关重要。我们建议使用观测和理想化和真实的飓风的数值模拟来研究飓风强度快速变化的动力学和可预测性。