Predicting rapid intensity change of hurricanes

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Hurricanes, also named tropical cyclones in general, are the most violent and destructive weather phenomenon. Hurricanes have regularly resulted in annual economic losses exceeding $10 billions per year in the U.S. alone in the past decade. When a hurricane moves to higher latitudes, it can still pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities by producing intense rainfall, large waves, and strong winds. Accurate predictions of hurricanes are thus crucial to alleviate the costs. The track forecasts of hurricanes have been steadily improved over the last several decades. However, predicting their intensities, in particular the rapid intensity changes, remains a grand challenge. Better understanding of the mechanisms governing rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in hurricanes is essential for improving the intensity forecast. We propose to study the dynamics and predictability of the hurricane rapid intensity change using observations, and numerical simulations of idealized and real hurricanes.