Control, estimation and prognostic for partially observable deteriorating systems with multivariate observations

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The objective of the proposed research is to develop the optimal control, estimation, and prognostic procedures for models of partially observable deteriorating systems subject to random failure, considering both single failure mode as well as a combination of degradation and sudden failure (competing risks). The models will be formulated and developed with practical applications in mind, to represent real systems as well as possible. Condition monitoring is currently widely used both in industries and medicine to prevent the occurrence of high degradation or failure, both of which have serious consequences. In technical applications, these are mainly the cost or safety consequences, in medical applications, the high cost is combined with health issues. In most cases, diagnosis of a disease in an early stage results in a better prognosis of successful cure at lower cost. Condition monitoring and screening procedures currently in use have not been designed optimally or even sub-optimally. They are widely used and more such procedures will soon be implemented especially in the healthcare sector worldwide, but also in many larger companies mainly in industries where stopping, full inspection, and testing is very expensive. Proper system modeling and the optimal design of such procedures, which is the focus of the proposed research is expected to bring huge economic as well as health benefits. The proposed research is highly novel and unique in the world. The results obtained so far using simpler system modeling are very promising and considerably better results are expected with the proposed more advanced modeling and better utilization of multivariate data for estimation, prognostic, as well as optimal decision-making. The Principal Investigator has extensive experience with modeling, estimation and control of deteriorating systems as well as practical experience acquired through collaboration with the University of Toronto CBM Consortium companies and many other companies for many years. He will continue publishing the unique results of his research in the top international journals and it is expected that results obtained in the proposed research will contribute very significantly to the further development of the discipline.