The role of ENDS use in changing rates of escalation and quitting of cigarette smoking in those under age 35 years in US population

ENDS 使用对改变美国 35 岁以下人群吸烟升级和戒烟率的作用

• 批准号: 10011784
• 负责人: Tarik Benmarhnia
• 金额: $ 31.27万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-11 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10011784
• 关键词: 12 year old; 17 year old; 18 year old; 20 year old; Achievement; Address; Adult; Age; Area; Behavior; Categories; Cigarette; Cigarette Smoker; Complex; Confounding Factors (Epidemiology); Data; Data Collection; Diffusion; Education; Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems; Electronic cigarette; Enrollment; Epidemiologic Methods; Equilibrium; Escalator; Estimation Techniques; Exposure to; Family; Female; Generations; Health; Longitudinal Studies; Measures; Mental Health; Methodology; Methods; Monitor; Nicotine; Nicotine Dependence; Outcome; Pattern; Perception; Performance; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Predisposition; Probability; Public Health; Research; Role; Sampling; Smoke-free home; Smoker; Smoking; Smoking Behavior; Smoking Status; Structural Models; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco Use Cessation; Tobacco use; United States; Variant; Weight; Youth; aged; cigarette smoking; comparison group; design; experience; experimental study; health data; interest; longitudinal analysis; machine learning algorithm; nicotine use; nicotine user; peer; prognostic; rate of change; response; smoking cessation; tobacco advertising; tobacco products; tobacco user; young adult

Abstract Recently, there has been extensive use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) by young people in the United States (US). These products have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of young adults who are addicted to cigarette smoking, either by influencing the proportion who escalate to daily cigarette smoking or by increasing the proportion who quit under the age of 35 years. Previous research has demonstrated that there are two groups of escalators to daily cigarette smoking: 1) early escalators who are daily smokers before age 20 years, and 2) later escalators (become daily smokers at 21+ years). This proposal will explore the long-term role of ENDS in changing the escalation and quitting of cigarette smoking using the first four waves of the national Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) longitudinal study. The study used a four stage stratified area probability design and has enrolled ~26,000 people under the age of 35 years, half of whom were female. The public use data for the first two waves are available and include longitudinal weighting variables. Wave 3 is expected to be publicly available in Spring 2018, and Wave 4 one is expected year later. The weighted response for Wave 2 was 87% for 12-17 year olds, and 83% for adults. With these PATH data, we will explore two scientific premises: 1) that widespread promotion of ENDS has resulted in a new generation of nicotine users who rely on ENDS usage and who did not escalate to daily cigarette smokers when becoming adults; and 2) that the diffusion of ENDS among young tobacco users will result in lower nicotine dependence that, in turn, will be associated with higher rates of successful discontinuance of cigarette smoking before age 35 years. A significant methodological weakness in such complex longitudinal analyses is related to the consideration of a large number of time-varying confounding variables that are prognostic for changes in tobacco use behaviors and are also associated with the outcome of interest. Some epidemiological methods allow the achievement of covariate balance between different exposure groups. With these methods, ongoing differences in outcomes of interest are directly attributable to ENDS usage, for example. In this context, we leverage Propensity Score Matching (PSM), and Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) to adjust for time-varying confounding. We will also explore Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) techniques to optimize the performance of PSM. We will conduct separate analyses for early escalators, late escalators, and quitters before age 35 years. This proposal will answer an urgent public health question in regards to the long-term potential benefits associated with ENDS usage, while also providing an example to the tobacco research field of state-of-art epidemiological methods for complex longitudinal analyses.

摘要 最近，电子尼古丁输送系统（ENDS）在美国的年轻人中得到了广泛的使用。 美国（US）。这些产品有可能显着降低年轻人的比例 吸烟成瘾的人，或者通过影响升级到每天吸烟的比例， 吸烟或增加35岁以下戒烟者的比例。先前的研究 证明有两组自动扶梯每天吸烟：1）早期自动扶梯谁是 20岁以前每天吸烟，2）后来的自动扶梯（21岁以上成为每天吸烟者）。这项建议 将探索ENDS在改变吸烟升级和戒烟方面的长期作用， 国家烟草与健康人口评估纵向研究的前四波。的 研究采用四阶段分层区域概率设计，招募了约26，000名35岁以下的人 年，其中一半是女性。前两波的公共使用数据可用，包括 纵向加权变量。Wave 3预计将于2018年春季公开发售，Wave 4 one则在 预计一年后。12-17岁奥尔兹的第2波加权反应为87%，成人为83%。 通过这些PATH数据，我们将探索两个科学前提：1）ENDS的广泛推广 导致新一代尼古丁使用者依赖于ENDS使用，并且没有升级到每天使用 吸烟者成为成年人; 2）ENDS在年轻烟草使用者中的传播将 导致较低的尼古丁依赖，反过来，将与较高的成功率相关 在35岁之前停止吸烟。这种方法的一个重大缺陷是， 复杂的纵向分析涉及到大量时变混杂因素的考虑 预测烟草使用行为变化并与结果相关的变量 感兴趣一些流行病学方法允许在不同的 暴露组。使用这些方法，关注结果的持续差异可直接归因于 例如，结束使用。在这种情况下，我们利用倾向分数匹配（PSM）和边际 结构模型（MSM），以调整随时间变化的混杂。我们还将探索目标最大化 似然估计（TMLE）技术来优化PSM的性能。我们将分别进行 分析早期自动扶梯，晚期自动扶梯和35岁之前戒烟者。这项提案将回答一个 关于与ENDS使用相关的长期潜在益处的紧迫公共卫生问题， 还为烟草研究领域提供了一个最先进的流行病学方法的例子， 纵向分析。

项目成果

Helping smokers to quit.

帮助吸烟者戒烟。

• DOI: 10.1136/bmj.k2806
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
• 作者: Pierce,JohnP

Daily E-cigarette Use and the Surge in JUUL Sales: 2017-2019.

• DOI: 10.1542/peds.2021-055379
• 发表时间: 2022-06-01
• 期刊: PEDIATRICS
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Pierce, John P.;Zhang, Jasen;Alexander, Laura E. Crotty;Leas, Eric C.;Kealey, Sheila;White, Martha M.;Strong, David R.;Trinidad, Dennis R.;McMenamin, Sara B.;Chen, Ruifeng;Benmarhnia, Tarik;Messer, Karen
• 通讯作者: Messer, Karen

Response.

回复。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2017.02.029
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Chest
• 影响因子: 9.6
• 作者: Rush,Barret;Hertz,Paul;Bond,Alexandra;McDermid,RobertC;Celi,LeoAnthony
• 通讯作者: Celi,LeoAnthony

Effectiveness of e-cigarettes as aids for smoking cessation: evidence from the PATH Study cohort, 2017-2019.

• DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056901
• 发表时间: 2023-08
• 期刊: TOBACCO CONTROL
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Chen, Ruifeng;Pierce, John P.;Leas, Eric C.;Benmarhnia, Tarik;Strong, David R.;White, Martha M.;Stone, Matthew;Trinidad, Dennis R.;McMenamin, Sara B.;Messer, Karen
• 通讯作者: Messer, Karen

Google shopping queries for vaping products, JUUL and IQOS during the E-cigarette, or Vaping, product use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) outbreak.

• DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056481
• 发表时间: 2022-08
• 期刊: Tobacco control
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Leas EC;Moy NH;Nobles AL;Ayers J;Zhu SH;Purushothaman V
• 通讯作者: Purushothaman V