The role of ENDS use in changing rates of escalation and quitting of cigarette smoking in those under age 35 years in US population

ENDS 使用对改变美国 35 岁以下人群吸烟升级和戒烟率的作用

• 批准号: 10011784
• 负责人: Tarik Benmarhnia
• 金额: $ 31.27万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-11 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10011784
• 关键词: 12 year old; 17 year old; 18 year old; 20 year old; Achievement; Address; Adult; Age; Area; Behavior; Categories; Cigarette; Cigarette Smoker; Complex; Confounding Factors (Epidemiology); Data; Data Collection; Diffusion; Education; Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems; Electronic cigarette; Enrollment; Epidemiologic Methods; Equilibrium; Escalator; Estimation Techniques; Exposure to; Family; Female; Generations; Health; Longitudinal Studies; Measures; Mental Health; Methodology; Methods; Monitor; Nicotine; Nicotine Dependence; Outcome; Pattern; Perception; Performance; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Predisposition; Probability; Public Health; Research; Role; Sampling; Smoke-free home; Smoker; Smoking; Smoking Behavior; Smoking Status; Structural Models; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco Use Cessation; Tobacco use; United States; Variant; Weight; Youth; aged; cigarette smoking; comparison group; design; experience; experimental study; health data; interest; longitudinal analysis; machine learning algorithm; nicotine use; nicotine user; peer; prognostic; rate of change; response; smoking cessation; tobacco advertising; tobacco products; tobacco user; young adult

Abstract Recently, there has been extensive use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) by young people in the United States (US). These products have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of young adults who are addicted to cigarette smoking, either by influencing the proportion who escalate to daily cigarette smoking or by increasing the proportion who quit under the age of 35 years. Previous research has demonstrated that there are two groups of escalators to daily cigarette smoking: 1) early escalators who are daily smokers before age 20 years, and 2) later escalators (become daily smokers at 21+ years). This proposal will explore the long-term role of ENDS in changing the escalation and quitting of cigarette smoking using the first four waves of the national Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) longitudinal study. The study used a four stage stratified area probability design and has enrolled ~26,000 people under the age of 35 years, half of whom were female. The public use data for the first two waves are available and include longitudinal weighting variables. Wave 3 is expected to be publicly available in Spring 2018, and Wave 4 one is expected year later. The weighted response for Wave 2 was 87% for 12-17 year olds, and 83% for adults. With these PATH data, we will explore two scientific premises: 1) that widespread promotion of ENDS has resulted in a new generation of nicotine users who rely on ENDS usage and who did not escalate to daily cigarette smokers when becoming adults; and 2) that the diffusion of ENDS among young tobacco users will result in lower nicotine dependence that, in turn, will be associated with higher rates of successful discontinuance of cigarette smoking before age 35 years. A significant methodological weakness in such complex longitudinal analyses is related to the consideration of a large number of time-varying confounding variables that are prognostic for changes in tobacco use behaviors and are also associated with the outcome of interest. Some epidemiological methods allow the achievement of covariate balance between different exposure groups. With these methods, ongoing differences in outcomes of interest are directly attributable to ENDS usage, for example. In this context, we leverage Propensity Score Matching (PSM), and Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) to adjust for time-varying confounding. We will also explore Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) techniques to optimize the performance of PSM. We will conduct separate analyses for early escalators, late escalators, and quitters before age 35 years. This proposal will answer an urgent public health question in regards to the long-term potential benefits associated with ENDS usage, while also providing an example to the tobacco research field of state-of-art epidemiological methods for complex longitudinal analyses.

抽象的 最近，年轻人在 美国（美国）。这些产品有可能显着减少年轻人的比例 他们沉迷于吸烟，要么通过影响每日香烟升级的比例 吸烟或增加35岁以下辞职的比例。先前的研究已有 证明每天吸烟有两组自动扶梯：1）早期自动扶梯 20岁之前的每日吸烟者和2）后来的自动扶梯（在21岁以上的每日吸烟者）。这个建议 将探讨最终在改变吸烟的升级和戒烟方面的长期作用 全国人口烟草和健康（PATH）纵向研究的前四波浪潮。这 研究使用了四阶段分层的概率设计，并招募了约26,000人35岁的人 多年，其中一半是女性。前两个波的公共使用数据可用，包括 纵向加权变量。第三波预计将于2018年春季公开发售，Wave 4是 预计一年后。 12-17岁的2-17岁年龄段的加权反应为87％，成年人为83％。 使用这些路径数据，我们将探索两个科学前提：1）广泛促进目的 导致了新一代的尼古丁用户，他们依靠用法，并且没有每天升级为 吸烟者成年时； 2）年轻的烟草用户的结局扩散将 导致较低的尼古丁依赖性，反过来将与更高的成功率有关 35岁之前的吸烟中停用。在这样的方法上弱点 复杂的纵向分析与考虑大量时变的混杂有关 对于烟草使用行为变化的预后变量，也与结果相关联 感兴趣的。一些流行病学方法可以实现不同的协变量平衡 暴露组。通过这些方法，感兴趣的结果的持续差异直接归因于 例如，用法结束。在这种情况下，我们利用倾向得分匹配（PSM）和边缘 结构模型（MSM）调整时间变化的混杂。我们还将探索目标最大 优化PSM性能的可能性估计（TMLE）技术。我们将分开进行 分析35岁之前的早期自动扶梯，晚期自动扶梯和戒烟。该建议将回答 紧急公共卫生问题关于与目的使用相关的长期潜在利益，而 还为复杂的最先进流行病学方法的烟草研究领域提供了一个例子 纵向分析。

项目成果

Helping smokers to quit.

帮助吸烟者戒烟。

• DOI: 10.1136/bmj.k2806
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
• 作者: Pierce,JohnP

Daily E-cigarette Use and the Surge in JUUL Sales: 2017-2019.

• DOI: 10.1542/peds.2021-055379
• 发表时间: 2022-06-01
• 期刊: PEDIATRICS
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Pierce, John P.;Zhang, Jasen;Alexander, Laura E. Crotty;Leas, Eric C.;Kealey, Sheila;White, Martha M.;Strong, David R.;Trinidad, Dennis R.;McMenamin, Sara B.;Chen, Ruifeng;Benmarhnia, Tarik;Messer, Karen
• 通讯作者: Messer, Karen

Response.

回复。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2017.02.029
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Chest
• 影响因子: 9.6
• 作者: Rush,Barret;Hertz,Paul;Bond,Alexandra;McDermid,RobertC;Celi,LeoAnthony
• 通讯作者: Celi,LeoAnthony

Effectiveness of e-cigarettes as aids for smoking cessation: evidence from the PATH Study cohort, 2017-2019.

• DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056901
• 发表时间: 2023-08
• 期刊: TOBACCO CONTROL
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Chen, Ruifeng;Pierce, John P.;Leas, Eric C.;Benmarhnia, Tarik;Strong, David R.;White, Martha M.;Stone, Matthew;Trinidad, Dennis R.;McMenamin, Sara B.;Messer, Karen
• 通讯作者: Messer, Karen

Use of Electronic Cigarettes to Aid Long-Term Smoking Cessation in the United States: Prospective Evidence From the PATH Cohort Study.

• DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwaa161
• 发表时间: 2020-12-01
• 期刊: American journal of epidemiology
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Chen R;Pierce JP;Leas EC;White MM;Kealey S;Strong DR;Trinidad DR;Benmarhnia T;Messer K
• 通讯作者: Messer K