Variability in multicomponent ecological systems: its behavior, general determinants, and a test of a new framework

我们最近的理论工作以及对实验室生态系统、自然水生微宇宙和北部湖泊的实验和观测数据的分析使我们产生了这样的想法：任何与生态相关的变量的空间和时间变化都是完全相关的，因此是可以互换的。这是因为空间的变化和时间的变化可以在数量上联系在一起(新的重要结果)。这一发现开启了一个令人兴奋的前景，人们可以从空间差异(通常可获得或更容易获得)中预测时间差异(通常很难获得)，并将其应用于关键问题，如人口、生态系统和景观保护或全球范围内农业生态系统的可变性(以及，例如，粮食生产的可靠性)。拟议的研究旨在测试这种关系的几个方面：(1)我们将在最初的试点工作之外测试其理论基础：我们将使用实验室实验来测试已知环境变化对潜在方程的预测能力的影响。(2)我们将测试这种关系所提出的模式是否在自然界中是可检测的和重要的，以及在什么条件下：我们将通过操纵自然微观世界系统中的连通性和间接的栖息地变异性来做到这一点。最后，(3)我们将通过进行“概念验证”探索来检验研究结果的重要性：我们将把该模型应用于原始和修改过的景观(黄石国家公园及其邻近地区)的卫星数据，以及全球粮食生产和全球农业生态系统的属性(按国家)，例如生态条件(例如，降水、碎片化、化肥使用)。后两条调查路线应对没有系统调查但可能被证明对养护和管理以及揭示区域(按大陆)粮食生产及其决定因素的脆弱性(可变性)非常重要的景观变化方面提供重要的实际见解。

Our recent theoretical work and analyses of experimental and observational data from laboratory ecosystems, natural aquatic microcosms, and northern lakes led us to the idea that spatial and temporal variances of any ecologically relevant variable are exactly related and thus interchangeable. This is because variation in space and variation in time can be quantitatively linked (new important result). The finding opens an exciting prospect that one could predict temporal variance (usually difficult to obtain) from spatial variance (often available or much easier to obtain) and apply it to crucial problems such as population, ecosystem, and landscape conservation or variability of agroecosystems at a global scale (and, for example, reliability of food production). The proposed research aims at testing several aspects of the relationship: (1) we will test its theoretical foundations beyond the initial pilot work: he we will use laboratory experiments which will test for the effects of known environmental variation on the predictive power of the underlying equation. (2) We will test whether the patterns suggested by the relationship are detectable and important in nature and under what conditions: we will do so by manipulating connectivity and, indirectly, habitat variability in a system of natural microcosms. Finally, (3) we will test the significance of findings by performing 'proof-of-concept' exploration: we will apply the model to satellite data on pristine and modified landscapes (Yellowstone National Park and adjacent area) and to global food production and attributes of global agroecosystem (by country) such as ecological conditions (e.g., precipitation, fragmentation, fertilizer use). The latter two lines of investigation should provide significant practical insights into aspects of landscape change that were not systematically investigated but may prove very important to conservation and management as well as to uncovering vulnerabilities (variability) in regional (by continent) food production and their determinants.