Variability in multicomponent ecological systems: its behavior, general determinants, and a test of a new framework

我们最近的理论工作和实验室生态系统，自然水生微宇宙和北方湖泊的实验和观测数据的分析，使我们的想法，任何生态相关变量的空间和时间的变化是完全相关的，因此可以互换。这是因为空间的变化和时间的变化可以定量地联系起来（新的重要结果）。 这一发现开辟了一个令人兴奋的前景，人们可以预测时间变化（通常很难获得）从空间变化（通常可用或更容易获得），并将其应用于关键问题，如人口，生态系统和景观保护或农业生态系统在全球范围内的变化（以及，例如，粮食生产的可靠性）。拟议的研究旨在测试关系的几个方面：（1）我们将测试其理论基础超出最初的试点工作：他我们将使用实验室实验，将测试已知的环境变化对潜在方程的预测能力的影响。 (2)我们将测试这种关系所暗示的模式在自然界中是否是可检测的和重要的，以及在什么条件下：我们将通过操纵自然微观系统中的连通性和间接的栖息地变异性来做到这一点。 最后，（3）我们将通过进行“概念验证”探索来测试研究结果的意义：我们将把模型应用于原始和改造景观（黄石国家公园和邻近地区）的卫星数据，以及全球粮食生产和全球农业生态系统的属性（按国家），如生态条件（例如，降水、破碎、肥料使用）。 后两条调查线应提供重要的实际见解景观变化的方面，没有系统地调查，但可能证明非常重要的保护和管理，以及揭示脆弱性（变异性）在区域（按大陆）粮食生产及其决定因素。

Our recent theoretical work and analyses of experimental and observational data from laboratory ecosystems, natural aquatic microcosms, and northern lakes led us to the idea that spatial and temporal variances of any ecologically relevant variable are exactly related and thus interchangeable. This is because variation in space and variation in time can be quantitatively linked (new important result). The finding opens an exciting prospect that one could predict temporal variance (usually difficult to obtain) from spatial variance (often available or much easier to obtain) and apply it to crucial problems such as population, ecosystem, and landscape conservation or variability of agroecosystems at a global scale (and, for example, reliability of food production). The proposed research aims at testing several aspects of the relationship: (1) we will test its theoretical foundations beyond the initial pilot work: he we will use laboratory experiments which will test for the effects of known environmental variation on the predictive power of the underlying equation. (2) We will test whether the patterns suggested by the relationship are detectable and important in nature and under what conditions: we will do so by manipulating connectivity and, indirectly, habitat variability in a system of natural microcosms. Finally, (3) we will test the significance of findings by performing 'proof-of-concept' exploration: we will apply the model to satellite data on pristine and modified landscapes (Yellowstone National Park and adjacent area) and to global food production and attributes of global agroecosystem (by country) such as ecological conditions (e.g., precipitation, fragmentation, fertilizer use). The latter two lines of investigation should provide significant practical insights into aspects of landscape change that were not systematically investigated but may prove very important to conservation and management as well as to uncovering vulnerabilities (variability) in regional (by continent) food production and their determinants.