RFA-CE-23-006, Do state alcohol-related firearm laws reduce mortality? A multicomponent impact evaluation

在美国，枪支是可预防的发病率和死亡率的主要来源， 到2020年，将导致45，000多人死亡，并给社会带来巨大损失。最近的分析 据估计，三分之一的枪支死者曾饮酒，而其他研究表明， 酒精使用和枪支相关自杀之间的联系枪支和 酒精使用是一个迄今为止受到相对较少关注的话题，但政策干预解决了 这种交叉点得到了广泛的公众支持，并可能为解决日益严重的 与枪支有关的伤害。一个挑战是如何解决这些问题，而又不过分加重 大量的枪支拥有者不太可能伤害自己或他人。与优先事项相一致 医学研究所/国家研究理事会报告中确定的研究重点， 枪支相关死亡的威胁，这项研究将确定针对酒精交叉的公共政策 和枪支，并严格评估其对与枪支有关的杀人、自杀和其他犯罪的潜在影响。 以及2010年至2022年期间的意外死亡。为了实现这些目标，研究将确定 并分析与明确针对酒精的州法律相关的法律的文本的范围和内容 损害/使用和火器销售、拥有和使用。这些法律的潜在影响将是 使用来自国家生命统计系统（NVSS）的州一级数据进行评估，同时控制其余数据。 国家内部的枪支和酒精政策背景。潜在的影响因素的作用，如年龄，性别， 然后将使用个人- 国家暴力死亡报告系统（NVDRS）。多学科的律师团队， 工程师、公共管理和公共卫生学者将采用法律的研究、内容分析， 严格的机器学习和因果推理方法，以及多层次和逆概率 进行回归分析，以客观和严格地审查这些法律的范围，评估其影响（如果有的话） （c）评估与火器有关的死亡人数，并确定可能在很长一段时间内减轻其影响的任何因素。在 除了公布分析结果外，研究小组还将制作一个基于网络的互动工具 供公众使用，让用户了解酒精，枪支和酒精相关的枪支政策， 国家，以及可视化枪支有关的死亡在他们的国家在这段时间内。这项建议是 响应RFA-CE-23 - 006供资选项A。

Project Summary: Firearms are a major source of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, contributing to over 45,000 deaths in 2020 and leading to substantial costs to society. Recent analyses estimate that one-third of firearm decedents had consumed alcohol, while other studies have demonstrated an association between alcohol use and firearm-related suicide. The intersection between firearms and alcohol use is a topic that has received relatively little attention to date, but policy interventions that address that intersection have wide public support and may offer new directions for tackling the large and growing burden of firearm-related harms. One challenge is how to address these problems without unduly burdening the large number of gun owners who are unlikely to harm themselves or others. Consistent with priorities established in the Institute of Medicine/National Research Council Report Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Deaths, this study will identify public policies that target the intersection of alcohol and firearms and provide a rigorous evaluation of their potential impacts on firearm-related homicide, suicide and unintentional deaths over the 2010 to 2022 period. To accomplish these objectives, the study will identify and analyze the scope and content of legal texts related to state laws that explicitly target alcohol impairment/use and firearm sales, ownership and use. The potential impact of these laws will then be assessed using state-level data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) while controlling for the rest of the firearm and alcohol policy context within states. The role of potential effect modifiers such as age, sex, and race/ethnicity will then be assessed for each outcome, including intimate partner homicide, using individual- level data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). The multidisciplinary team of attorneys, engineers, public administration and public health scholars will employ legal research, content analysis, rigorous machine learning and causal inference methods, as well as multi-level and inverse-probability regression analyses to objectively and rigorously examine the scope of these laws, assess their impact (if any) on firearm-related deaths, and identify any factors that may moderate their effects over a long time period. In addition to publishing findings from the analyses, the study team will produce an interactive web-based tool for public use that allows users to understand the alcohol, firearm and alcohol-related firearm policies in their states, as well as visualize firearm-related deaths in their states over the time period. This proposal is responsive to RFA-CE-23-006 Funding Option A.