RFA-CE-23-006, Do state alcohol-related firearm laws reduce mortality? A multicomponent impact evaluation

项目摘要：在美国，枪支是可预防的发病率和死亡率的主要来源， 2020年造成超过45,000人死亡，并导致社会付出巨大代价。最近的分析 据估计，三分之一的枪支死者曾饮酒，而其他研究表明 酒精使用与枪支相关自杀之间的联系。枪支和枪支之间的交叉 到目前为止，酒精使用是一个相对较少受到关注的话题，但政策干预解决了 这一交汇点得到了广泛的公众支持，并可能为解决规模庞大和不断增长的 与枪支有关的伤害的负担。一个挑战是如何在不造成过度负担的情况下解决这些问题 大量不太可能伤害自己或他人的枪支拥有者。与优先事项一致 建立在医学研究所/国家研究理事会报告中的研究优先事项，以减少 枪支相关死亡的威胁，这项研究将确定针对酒精交叉路口的公共政策 和枪支，并对其对与枪支有关的杀人、自杀的潜在影响进行严格评估 以及2010年至2022年期间的意外死亡。为了实现这些目标，这项研究将确定 并分析与明确针对酒精的州法律相关的法律文本的范围和内容 减值/使用和枪支销售、所有权和使用。这些法律的潜在影响将是 使用国家生命统计系统(NVSS)的州级数据进行评估，同时控制其余 国家内部的枪支和酒精政策背景。潜在影响因素的作用，如年龄、性别和 然后将评估每个结果的种族/民族，包括亲密伴侣被杀，使用个人- 国家暴力死亡报告系统(NVDRS)的水平数据。多学科的律师团队， 工程师、公共管理和公共卫生学者将利用法律研究、内容分析、 严格的机器学习和因果推理方法，以及多水平和逆概率 回归分析，以客观和严格地检查这些法律的范围，评估其影响(如果有的话) 关于与枪支有关的死亡人数，并查明任何可能在很长一段时间内减缓其影响的因素。在……里面 除了公布分析结果外，研究小组还将开发一个基于网络的互动工具 供公众使用，使用户能够了解其 在这段时间内，各州都能看到与枪支有关的死亡情况。这项建议是 响应RFA-CE-23-006供资备选方案A。

Project Summary: Firearms are a major source of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, contributing to over 45,000 deaths in 2020 and leading to substantial costs to society. Recent analyses estimate that one-third of firearm decedents had consumed alcohol, while other studies have demonstrated an association between alcohol use and firearm-related suicide. The intersection between firearms and alcohol use is a topic that has received relatively little attention to date, but policy interventions that address that intersection have wide public support and may offer new directions for tackling the large and growing burden of firearm-related harms. One challenge is how to address these problems without unduly burdening the large number of gun owners who are unlikely to harm themselves or others. Consistent with priorities established in the Institute of Medicine/National Research Council Report Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Deaths, this study will identify public policies that target the intersection of alcohol and firearms and provide a rigorous evaluation of their potential impacts on firearm-related homicide, suicide and unintentional deaths over the 2010 to 2022 period. To accomplish these objectives, the study will identify and analyze the scope and content of legal texts related to state laws that explicitly target alcohol impairment/use and firearm sales, ownership and use. The potential impact of these laws will then be assessed using state-level data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) while controlling for the rest of the firearm and alcohol policy context within states. The role of potential effect modifiers such as age, sex, and race/ethnicity will then be assessed for each outcome, including intimate partner homicide, using individual- level data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). The multidisciplinary team of attorneys, engineers, public administration and public health scholars will employ legal research, content analysis, rigorous machine learning and causal inference methods, as well as multi-level and inverse-probability regression analyses to objectively and rigorously examine the scope of these laws, assess their impact (if any) on firearm-related deaths, and identify any factors that may moderate their effects over a long time period. In addition to publishing findings from the analyses, the study team will produce an interactive web-based tool for public use that allows users to understand the alcohol, firearm and alcohol-related firearm policies in their states, as well as visualize firearm-related deaths in their states over the time period. This proposal is responsive to RFA-CE-23-006 Funding Option A.