Intuition, deliberation, and learning in repeated decision making under uncertainty

不确定性下重复决策中的直觉、深思熟虑和学习

• 批准号: 183792-2010
• 负责人: Koehler, Derek
• 金额: $ 2.55万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2013-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=522965
• 关键词: Intuition; deliberation; learning; repeated; decision

The proposed research investigates how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty that require them to draw on their own relevant past experience. Everyday examples include a commuter using past experience to decide which of several alternative routes home is least likely to result in a traffic jam, a physician identifying diagnostic symptoms associated with a novel disease based on patients seen to date, and a venture capitalist relying on past experience in evaluating characteristics of a business plan that are useful in predicting its future commercial value.

拟议的研究调查了人们如何在不确定的条件下做出决策，这些条件要求他们借鉴自己过去的相关经验。 日常的例子包括通勤者使用过去的经验来决定几条回家的替代路线中哪一条最不可能导致交通堵塞，医生根据迄今为止看到的患者识别与新疾病相关的诊断症状，风险投资家依靠过去的经验来评估商业计划的特征，这些特征有助于预测其未来的商业价值。