Long-term changes in coastal oceans: cumulative effects and ecosystem consequences

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The depleted state of many marine resources and their supporting ocean ecosystems are of profound ecological, economical, and ethical concern for our society today. Throughout history, human activities have influenced marine species and coastal ecosystems, but the rate and scale of human impacts and resulting ecological changes have accelerated over time. One fundamental question to science, management, and conservation is: How much have human impacts changed species abundance and ecosystem structure in the past and how will this influence species survival and the functioning of ecosystems today and in the future? In order to judge the current state of depletion or recovery of any system it is essential to establish a historical baseline for comparison. Moreover, future predictions rely on understanding long-term trends and the underlying causes and consequences of change. Our current understanding of the cumulative effects of multiple human activities is weak, particularly over large temporal and spatial scales. The proposed research program addresses these issues by focusing on two major objectives: (1) to assess the ecosystem consequences of long-term changes in coastal ecosystems, and (2) to analyze the cumulative effects of multiple drivers of change. We will use a combination of historical time series analysis to assess long-term trends, multi-factorial field surveys to assess large-scale changes across gradients of human impacts, and laboratory experiments to analyze interactions between current drivers and future climate change. Ecosystem models will be applied to evaluate the structural and functional consequences of observed temporal and spatial changes. Overall, the proposed research program will enhance scientific knowledge and capacity in the developing fields of historical ecology, ecological forecasting, and the cumulative effects of multiple ecological controls. The scientific and applied importance makes this research program ideal for the training of highly qualified personnel for science, management, and conservation.