Modelling microbial adaptation

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Bacteria, viruses and other microbes adapt much more rapidly than humans. I use mathematical models to predict how quickly this microbial evolution unfolds. To do this, we need to predict which types of mutations might be beneficial to the organism, and how large their effects might be; this is called the "distribution of selective effects". Since many mutations, even if they are beneficial, are eventually lost from an evolving population, we would also like to predict whether new beneficial mutations will successfully spread through the microbial population, the "fixation probability". Finally, we would like to understand the "adaptive walk", that is, the process through which several beneficial mutations are acquired in sequence as the microbial population adapts to its environment.