Population dynamics of migratory animals: integrating theory and data

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Many of Canada's migratory species are declining but understanding the factors that influence their abundance has been challenging because migratory animals are distributed over a complex series of breeding and wintering sites that are often separated by large geographic distances. We have recently developed mathematical models that describe these migratory networks and are designed to predict how environmental change will influence populations across the species range. The long-term goal of my research is to be able to apply these models to migratory species and then use them to predict future changes in population size and design effective conserve plans. Over the next 5 years, I proposed to tackle this problem is several novel ways. First, my lab will use chemical markers (stable isotopes) to track the migratory patterns of Monarch butterflies as they re-colonize North America each spring. This will provide us with critical information for developing models to predict the response of Monarchs to climate change and habitat loss. Second, we will use two 25+ yr datasets on migratory songbirds to ask how variation in climate during different periods of the annual cycle influence populations. To extract climate data from the annual cycle, we will attached small geolocators to adults to determine where individuals migrate to during the winter. Third, we will examine how migratory systems respond environmental change using Drosophila melanogaster as an experimental model system. Results will allow us to rapidly assess how migratory organisms respond to habitat loss and develop better predictive models for wild organisms. Funding from this research will support the training of 3 Ph.D. students and 2 M.Sc. students, as well as numerous undergraduate assistants and senior honours thesis students. All students will have the opportunity to interact with a diverse array of faculty in the physiological, ecological, and evolutionary sciences and receive training in wide range of skills in both the field and laboratory. This proposed research will both improve our understanding of one of the key components to Canada's ecosystems and prepare students for successful careers in biology and conservation.