Collaborative Research: ORCC:RUI: Integrating evolutionary and migratory potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata into forecasts of range-wide population dynamics under climate change

合作研究：ORCC：RUI：将 Chamaecrista fasciculata 的进化和迁徙潜力纳入气候变化下范围内种群动态的预测中

• 批准号: 2220929
• 负责人: Emily Josephs
• 金额: $ 30.32万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2220929&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; RUI; Integrating

Successful conservation of global biodiversity requires that biologists accurately predict the risk of species extinction under future climate conditions. However, current models often make simplifying assumptions about the biology of plants and animals. For example, some models assume that a species can easily migrate through the landscape when this is not the case, or that a species is not able to evolve rapidly to environmental change when this is actually a possibility. Our interdisciplinary team will study the biology of a plant species to determine what data researchers and conservationists need to predict how climate change will influence extinction risk for plants in the natural environment. We will use the partridge pea (Chamaecrista fasciculata), a common and widespread plant in natural grasslands, to identify the type of data needed to improve ecological models for conservation planning. We will evaluate genetic differences and rates of gene flow among populations and estimate these populations’ ability to evolve in response to climate change to identify models that best describe or forecast rates of change under new climate conditions. In collaboration with the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and the Southeastern Grasslands Initiative, we will apply what we learn to develop a series of tools that practitioners can use to predict extinction risks under climate change for at-risk grassland species. This work will significantly improve our ability to protect biodiversity in the southeastern U.S. and in habitats around the world.Populations across the range of a species vary in their migratory and adaptive potential under climate change. Most approaches aimed at predicting population persistence under climate change make simplifying assumptions about plasticity, adaptation, and gene flow that are commonly violated in natural systems. We combine approaches from evolutionary biology, field ecology, and population genomics to forecast range-wide dynamics under climate change in a broadly distributed native legume (Chamaecrista fasciculata). Our studies examine the migratory potential of populations under climate change using population genomic estimators of historical gene flow. To evaluate adaptive potential, we will expose paternal half-sib families from 12 populations to contemporary climates and simulated climate change in common gardens across the range. Finally, we will forecast eco-evolutionary dynamics under climate change using models that differ in the degree to which they incorporate data on species occurrence, additive genetic variance in fitness in response to climate, trait expression, sequence variation, and gene flow. Our work will provide a robust framework for predictions of range-wide responses to climate change in systems that are less amenable to manipulation. We will collaborate with conservation practitioners in the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and Southeastern Grasslands Initiative to produce risk assessment tools that project range dynamics under climate change for endangered plant species. In workshops, we will discuss our progress and provide opportunities for our trainees to forge connections with conservation practitioners. The PIs will recruit, train, and mentor scholars from historically marginalized backgrounds in population genomics, quantitative genetics, data analysis, and ecological modeling.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

全球生物多样性的成功保护需要生物学家准确预测未来气候条件下物种灭绝的风险。然而，当前的模型经常对动植物的生物学做出简化的假设。例如，一些模型假设一个物种可以轻松地在景观中迁移，但事实并非如此，或者一个物种无法快速进化以适应环境变化，而实际上这是可能的。 我们的跨学科团队将研究植物物种的生物学，以确定研究人员和自然资源保护主义者需要哪些数据来预测气候变化将如何影响自然环境中植物的灭绝风险。我们将使用鹧鸪豆（Chamaecrista fasciculata）（一种天然草原中常见且分布广泛的植物）来确定改进保护规划生态模型所需的数据类型。我们将评估种群之间的遗传差异和基因流动速率，并估计这些种群响应气候变化而进化的能力，以确定最能描述或预测新气候条件下变化速率的模型。我们将与乔治亚州植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议合作，应用我们所学到的知识来开发一系列工具，从业者可以使用这些工具来预测气候变化下濒危草原物种的灭绝风险。这项工作将显着提高我们保护美国东南部和世界各地栖息地生物多样性的能力。不同物种的种群在气候变化下的迁徙和适应潜力各不相同。大多数旨在预测气候变化下人口持久性的方法都简化了有关可塑性、适应性和基因流动的假设，而这些假设在自然系统中通常被违反。我们结合进化生物学、野外生态学和群体基因组学的方法来预测气候变化下广泛分布的本土豆科植物（Chamaecrista fasciculata）的范围动态。我们的研究利用历史基因流的群体基因组估计器来研究气候变化下人口的迁徙潜力。为了评估适应潜力，我们将把来自 12 个种群的同父异母家庭暴露在当代气候中，并在整个范围内的公共花园中模拟气候变化。最后，我们将使用不同程度的模型来预测气候变化下的生态进化动态，这些模型将物种出现的数据、适应气候的加性遗传方差、性状表达、序列变异和基因流的数据结合起来。我们的工作将为预测不太容易操纵的系统中对气候变化的大范围反应提供一个强大的框架。我们将与乔治亚州植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议的保护从业者合作，开发风险评估工具，预测气候变化下濒危植物物种的范围动态。在研讨会上，我们将讨论我们的进展，并为学员提供与保护从业者建立联系的机会。 PI 将招募、培训和指导来自人口基因组学、定量遗传学、数据分析和生态建模领域历史上边缘化背景的学者。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。