Quantifying the response of Canadian forests to climate change, extreme weather events and management activities

加拿大东部和美国的大部分森林是种植园或管理的森林，吸收大气中的二氧化碳，以抵消部分化石燃料的排放。这些森林正受到区域气候变化和干旱、洪水和冬夏气温升高等极端天气事件的影响。我们将调查环境变化对碳（C），水和养分循环在种植/管理的森林生态系统生长在南安大略的农业景观的影响，以及这些森林如何应对未来的气候变化和极端天气事件。这些森林包括三个针叶树年龄序列（74，39，11岁）和落叶（>80岁）的立场。 所有四个看台都位于长点地区保护局的分水岭。74-在2012年冬季，对1年生针叶林进行间伐（30%的树木被移除）。将使用生物测定和微气象技术评估这种管理处理对碳封存的影响。我们还将进行模拟研究，探索自然和人为影响（干旱/洪水，热应力等）对C和水交换的影响，在所有四个森林使用氮耦合模型（加拿大陆地表面方案-加拿大陆地生态系统模型，CLASS-CTEM+N）和BEPS模型，耦合到区域GEM模型。此外，还将部署一个水文模型（MIKE-SHE），以研究流域的地下水动态，并为流域的分布式CLASS-CTEM+N模拟提供水文输入数据。还将使用CFS-FBM模型研究加拿大针叶林造林的经济吸引力，包括与碳固存相关的效益。量化管理下的森林对气候变化的反应将有助于环境规划者制定森林生长和生存的适应战略，因为森林为社会提供了许多生态服务和清洁用水。在加拿大地球系统模式中实施CLASS-CTEM+N模式将提供一种评估工具，为联邦政府和政府间气候变化专门委员会制定政策提供未来气候情景。

A large portion of forests in eastern Canada and US are plantation or managed forests that absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide to offset some of the fossil fuel emissions. These forests are being affected by changes in regional climate and extreme weather events such as drought, floods and warmer winter/summer temperatures. We will investigate the impact of environmental changes on carbon (C), water and nutrient cycling in planted/managed forest ecosystems growing in an agricultural landscape in Southern Ontario and how these forests may respond to future climate change and extreme weather events. These forests include three conifer age-sequence (74, 39, 11 year old) and a deciduous (>80 year old) stands. All four stands are located in Long Point Region Conservation Authority watershed. 74-year old conifer stand has been thinned (30% trees removed) in winter of 2012. Impact of this management treatment on C sequestration will be evaluated using both biometric and micrometeorological techniques. We will also conduct modeling studies to explore the impact of natural and anthropogenic effects (drought/flooding, heat stresses etc) on C and water exchanges in all four forests using a nitrogen coupled model (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme - Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, CLASS-CTEM+N) and BEPS model, coupled to regional GEM model. In addition a hydrologic model (MIKE-SHE) will be deployed to study ground water dynamics of watersheds and to provide hydrologic input data for distributed CLASS-CTEM+N simulations over the catchments. The economic attractiveness of conifer afforestation across Canada will also be investigated using CFS-FBM model, including C sequestration related benefits. Quantification of the responses of managed forests to climate changes would help environmental planners to develop adaptation strategies for the growth and survival of forests, which provide numerous ecological services and clean water to society. Implementation of CLASS-CTEM+N model in Canadian Earth System Model would provide an assessment tool to generate scenarios of future climate for policy development by the Federal Government and IPCC.