Quantifying the response of Canadian forests to climate change, extreme weather events and management activities

加拿大东部和美国的大部分森林是人工林或人工林，它们吸收大气中的二氧化碳来抵消一些化石燃料排放。这些森林正受到区域气候变化和极端天气事件的影响，如干旱、洪水和冬/夏温度升高。我们将研究环境变化对安大略省南部农业景观中种植/管理森林生态系统中碳(C)、水和养分循环的影响，以及这些森林如何应对未来的气候变化和极端天气事件。这些森林包括3个针叶林年龄序列（74、39、11年）和一个落叶林（50 ~ 80年）。这四个林分都位于长点地区自然保护局的流域内。2012年冬季，74年的针叶树林被削薄（30%的树木被砍伐）。将利用生物计量和微气象技术评估这种管理处理对碳封存的影响。我们还将进行建模研究，利用氮耦合模型（加拿大陆地表面方案-加拿大陆地生态系统模型，类- ctem +N）和BEPS模型，以及区域GEM模型，探索自然和人为效应（干旱/洪水、热应力等）对所有四种森林的碳和水交换的影响。此外，将部署一个水文模型（MIKE-SHE）来研究流域的地下水动力学，并为集水区的分布式CLASS-CTEM+N模拟提供水文输入数据。还将使用CFS-FBM模型调查加拿大针叶树造林的经济吸引力，包括与碳封存相关的效益。管理森林对气候变化的反应的量化将有助于环境规划者为森林的生长和生存制定适应战略，森林为社会提供许多生态服务和清洁水。在加拿大地球系统模式中实施CLASS-CTEM+N模式将为联邦政府和IPCC制定政策提供一个评估工具，以生成未来气候情景。

A large portion of forests in eastern Canada and US are plantation or managed forests that absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide to offset some of the fossil fuel emissions. These forests are being affected by changes in regional climate and extreme weather events such as drought, floods and warmer winter/summer temperatures. We will investigate the impact of environmental changes on carbon (C), water and nutrient cycling in planted/managed forest ecosystems growing in an agricultural landscape in Southern Ontario and how these forests may respond to future climate change and extreme weather events. These forests include three conifer age-sequence (74, 39, 11 year old) and a deciduous (>80 year old) stands. All four stands are located in Long Point Region Conservation Authority watershed. 74-year old conifer stand has been thinned (30% trees removed) in winter of 2012. Impact of this management treatment on C sequestration will be evaluated using both biometric and micrometeorological techniques. We will also conduct modeling studies to explore the impact of natural and anthropogenic effects (drought/flooding, heat stresses etc) on C and water exchanges in all four forests using a nitrogen coupled model (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme - Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, CLASS-CTEM+N) and BEPS model, coupled to regional GEM model. In addition a hydrologic model (MIKE-SHE) will be deployed to study ground water dynamics of watersheds and to provide hydrologic input data for distributed CLASS-CTEM+N simulations over the catchments. The economic attractiveness of conifer afforestation across Canada will also be investigated using CFS-FBM model, including C sequestration related benefits. Quantification of the responses of managed forests to climate changes would help environmental planners to develop adaptation strategies for the growth and survival of forests, which provide numerous ecological services and clean water to society. Implementation of CLASS-CTEM+N model in Canadian Earth System Model would provide an assessment tool to generate scenarios of future climate for policy development by the Federal Government and IPCC.