Natural and anthropogenic drivers of the broad-scale geographic distributions of species

物种大范围地理分布的自然和人为驱动因素

• 批准号: 3131-2012
• 负责人: Currie, David
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of Ottawa
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=568277
• 关键词: Natural; anthropogenic; drivers; broad; scale

The most fundamental -- and practical -- questions about ecological systems are : what determines how many organisms there are, and where they are found? Complete answers to these questions would be impossibly complex. Useful preliminary answers would involve two parts: (1) predictive models that statistically relate the observed variance in nature of how many organisms there are, and where they are, to characteristics of organisms' habitat; coupled with (2) simple, process-based models that predict those statistical patterns, as well as other aspects of their biology and geography. The present study has two main goals. The first is to develop a simple, predictive model of the continental biogeography of species, beginning with trees and terrestrial vertebrates. I hypothesize that, for any given species, the probability of occupying a given geographic region, the probability of going locally extinct, and the probability of dispersing to neighboring regions, are all simple functions of climate, and the function form is largely constant among species. Summed over all species in a clade, these processes generate highly predictable patterns of species richness, species turnover through space, and species range sizes. The model should be able to predict the continental biogeography of species assemblages, and how they will react to climate change. The second goal is to develop models to predict how many, and which, species will persist in regional landscapes, in the face of human activity. It is generally believed that habitat destruction is the greatest cause of species loss. However, many species persist in landscapes with a mixture of natural land and human activity. Human activities will continue to convert natural habitat to human purposes. I propose to attempt to determine which habitat characteristics account for the majority of the variance in the persistence of species (beginning with birds and amphibians). I hope to be able to identify mixtures of natural- human-dominated landscapes that maximize the persistence of species.

关于生态系统最基本和最实际的问题是：是什么决定了有多少生物，以及它们在哪里被发现？ 这些问题的完整答案将是不可能的复杂。 有用的初步答案将涉及两个部分：（1）预测模型，它将观察到的自然界中有多少生物体以及它们在哪里的变化与生物体栖息地的特征统计相关;加上（2）简单的，基于过程的模型，预测这些统计模式，以及它们的生物学和地理学的其他方面。 本研究有两个主要目标。 第一个目标是从树木和陆生脊椎动物开始，建立一个简单的大陆物种地理学预测模型。 我假设，对于任何给定的物种，占据给定地理区域的概率，在当地灭绝的概率，以及扩散到邻近地区的概率，都是气候的简单函数，并且函数形式在物种之间基本上是恒定的。 在一个分支的所有物种的总和，这些过程产生高度可预测的模式，物种丰富度，物种周转通过空间，物种范围的大小。 该模型应该能够预测物种组合的大陆地理学，以及它们将如何对气候变化作出反应。 第二个目标是开发模型，预测在人类活动面前，有多少物种和哪些物种将在区域景观中持续存在。 人们普遍认为，栖息地的破坏是物种丧失的最大原因。 然而，许多物种在自然土地和人类活动混合的景观中持续存在。 人类活动将继续把自然生境转变为人类目的。 我建议尝试确定哪些栖息地特征占物种持久性差异的大部分（从鸟类和两栖动物开始）。 我希望能够识别自然-人类主导的景观的混合物，最大限度地提高物种的持久性。