A predictive approach to the continental distributions of species

物种大陆分布的预测方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03940
• 负责人: Currie, David
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Ottawa
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=648426
• 关键词: predictive; approach; continental; distributions; species

Species are distributed very unevenly over the Earth. What determines the spatial distributions of species? Why are there more species in some places than in others? Why do ranges sizes vary? How do human activities affect the capacity of the environment to accommodate species? These are among the most fundamental questions about natural ecological systems. Their answers are crucial to predicting the effects of global climate change and habitat modification. ******The long-term goals of my research are: 1) to document the main patterns in the geographic distribution of biodiversity; 2) to identify predictive relationships between biodiversity and characteristics of the environment; and 3) to propose and test simple, process-based models that accurately predict those variations. My research has four main themes:******Theme I: Earlier work from my lab showed that broad-scale geographic variation in species richness is strongly correlated to contemporary climate. These correlations probably reflect a causal link, because they accurately predict variations of richness through time and in other geographic regions. We have tested and rejected several hypotheses about underlying mechanisms, but we have not yet identified the processes that produce variations of biodiversity in nature.******To identify these processes, I plan to develop and test a model of continental biogeography, inspired by MacArthur and Wilson's Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography (ETIB). ETIB has been extremely fruitful, both conceptually, and because of its management implications. My students and I will hypothesize analogous sets of constraints on the geographic ranges of species on continents. Using a simulation model, we will derive predicted patterns of biodiversity from these hypotheses, and will compare the predictions to observed patterns of mammal and bird diversity in the Americas. Further, we will test whether our hypothesized constraints are observed in nature. ******Theme II: We also propose to test how human activities (e.g., climate change and natural habitat removal) affect species' distributions and species richness at the landscape scale. In previous work, we found that mixtures of 50% natural forest, and 50% human-dominated land cover maximize avian biodiversity in southern Ontario. Here, we will test whether this relationship holds in other biomes, and for other taxa. ******Theme III: The studies discussed above are based on statistical descriptions of patterns in nature. However, the predictive ability of these models is rarely tested. Inferences drawn from them may be incorrect. We propose to review, and to re-evaluate the predictive accuracy of published papers in biogeography. ******Theme IV: Finally, I wish to develop a synthesis (in monograph form) of the ecological literature on the predictable patterns of ecology. What can we predict about the structure and functioning of ecological systems?

物种在地球上的分布非常不均匀。是什么决定了物种的空间分布？为什么有些地方的物种比其他地方的多？为什么范围大小不同？人类活动如何影响环境适应物种的能力？这些都是关于自然生态系统的最基本的问题。他们的答案对于预测全球气候变化和栖息地改变的影响至关重要。******我研究的长期目标是：1)记录生物多样性地理分布的主要模式；2)识别生物多样性与环境特征之间的预测关系；3)提出并测试能够准确预测这些变化的简单、基于流程的模型。我的研究有四个主要主题：******主题一：我实验室早期的工作表明，物种丰富度的大范围地理变化与当代气候密切相关。这些相关性可能反映了一种因果关系，因为它们准确地预测了丰富度随时间和其他地理区域的变化。我们已经测试并拒绝了一些关于潜在机制的假设，但我们还没有确定产生自然界生物多样性变化的过程。******为了确定这些过程，我计划开发和测试一个大陆生物地理学模型，该模型受到麦克阿瑟和威尔逊的岛屿生物地理学平衡理论（ETIB）的启发。无论是在概念上，还是在管理上，ETIB都非常富有成效。我和我的学生将对大陆上物种的地理分布范围进行类似的假设。利用模拟模型，我们将从这些假设中得出生物多样性的预测模式，并将这些预测与美洲哺乳动物和鸟类多样性的观察模式进行比较。此外，我们将测试我们假设的约束是否在自然界中被观察到。******主题二：我们还建议在景观尺度上测试人类活动（如气候变化和自然栖息地的破坏）如何影响物种分布和物种丰富度。在之前的工作中，我们发现在安大略省南部，50%的自然森林和50%的人类主导的土地覆盖的混合物最大限度地提高了鸟类的生物多样性。在这里，我们将测试这种关系是否适用于其他生物群系和其他分类群。******主题三：上面讨论的研究是基于对自然界模式的统计描述。然而，这些模型的预测能力很少得到检验。从中得出的推论可能是不正确的。我们建议对已发表的生物地理学论文的预测准确性进行审查和重新评估。******主题四：最后，我希望对生态学可预测模式的生态文献进行综合（以专著的形式）。关于生态系统的结构和功能，我们可以预测什么？