Applied probability models in health, risk, queues and forestry

我们今年夏天在双语呼叫中心方面的工作(仍在进行中)集中在双语呼叫中心模型上，该模型根据队列长度的不同来分配双语话务员。在完成这一步骤后，我们打算研究三种语言的呼叫中心，以便在使用三种语言的呼叫中心之前，洞察最佳分配僵化(单语)和部分灵活(双语)话务员的良好策略。然后，我们希望将从这方面获得的见解应用于多语种呼叫中心的分配程序。 关于器官移植的等待名单，在几乎所有司法管辖区，对可能受益的患者的器官需求都超过了稳定的供应。对于肾脏和肝脏，活体捐赠者移植是一种正在受到越来越多关注的填补缺口的选择。我们在这一领域的工作已经对加拿大实现肝脏移植队列稳定所需的死亡供体器官与活体供体器官的数量进行了预测。未来的工作将包括详细模拟等待名单操作，以更全面地了解血型、健康水平、上名单时间等因素对移植时间的影响。将开发一个理论上的优先队列模型，以反映随着患者的健康水平随着时间的推移而降低的紧迫性。 未来在风险理论领域的工作将在两个方面展开：将流体流动技术应用于扰动风险过程的尚未解决的方面，如破产前的盈余，以及开始研究扰动风险过程和具有多层结构的Gerber-Shiu函数。在林业方面，我们将与安大略省消防当局(Ontario MNR)和国家消防专家(加拿大林业局)的合作伙伴合作，使用红外摄像机、专家意见收集和其他技术来研究火灾现场现象。

Our work this summer (still in progress) on Bilingual Call Centres has focused on bilingual call centre models that allocate bilingual agents on the basis of the difference in queue lengths. Upon completion of this step, we intend to study trilingual call centres to gain insight into good strategies for the optimal allocation of inflexible (unilingual) and partially-flexible (bilingual) agents, before using those who are trilingual. We then hope to apply insights gained from this aspect to allocation procedures for multilingual call centres. Turning to organ transplant waitlists, demand for organs from patients who could benefit exceeds the stable supply in almost all jurisdictions. For kidneys and livers, living-donor transplants are an option that is receiving increased attention to fill in the gap. Our work in this field has developed forecasts for the number of deceased donor organs vs. living donor organs required to achieve stability of the liver transplant queues in Canada. Future work will include a detailed simulation of waitlist operations, to more fully understand the impact of blood type, health level, time on list and other factors on time to transplantation. A theoretical priority queue model will be developed, to reflect increased urgency as a patient's health level decreases over time. Future work in the area of risk theory will pursue two fronts: applying fluid flow techniques to as yet unresolved aspects of perturbed risk processes such as the surplus prior to ruin, and initiating investigations of Gerber-Shiu functions for perturbed risk processes and those with a multi-layered structure. In Forestry, working with partners in provincial fire authorities (Ontario MNR) and national fire specialists (Canadian Forestry Service), we will study the fire spotting phenomenon, using infrared cameras, expert opinion elicitation, and other techniques.