Models to predict colonization, spread and evolution of invasive species

引进的非本地物种可能对环境、健康和经济产生强烈影响，因此，政府优先考虑确定将这些物种引入加拿大生态系统的相关风险。我们已经探索了从海外进入五大湖的航运载体，尽管从未研究过在湖泊和圣劳伦斯河之间移动的湖人船只。同样，也没有研究探索过将载体运送到北极。北极特别容易受到入侵，因为：1)浮冰的季节性消退将允许更多的物种从太平洋扩散到大西洋，2)浮冰的消退将潜在地允许船只利用西北航道，并引入船体污染或压载水物种；Iii)更温暖、更混合的沿海水域将增加藻类产量，这些藻类将被迁徙物种用作食物；(4)季节变暖将增加沿海水域对南方入侵者的环境适宜性。在这里，我们将探讨与湖泊和北极船舶相关的压载水矢量，以及北极船舶的船体污垢。我们试图验证这样一个假设，即船舶交通的增加增加了物种被引入这些生态系统的速度。我们还将测试一些非本地物种的环境适应性，以确定它们成功殖民和传播的潜力。我们还将探讨在非本地物种不存在的地区建立的种群是否由遗传上不同于源种群的入侵基因型组成。这些研究将对目前在加拿大蔓延的物种（如斑马贻贝、圆虾虎鱼）或那些预计在不久的将来会殖民的物种（中华绒蝥蟹）进行。这些研究将为生物入侵期间物种如何传播和进化的概念模型提供信息。

Introduced nonindigenous species may have strong environmental, health and economic impacts, thus governments have placed a priority on identifying risks associated with their introduction to Canadian ecosystems. We have explored shipping vectors into the Great Lakes from overseas, although Laker vessels that move between the lakes and the St. Lawrence River have never been studied. Likewise, no studies have explored shipping vectors to the Arctic. The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to invasions because: i) enhanced seasonal retreat of pack ice will allow more species to disperse across the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean, ii) pack ice retreat will potentially allow ships to utilize the Northwest Passage, and introduce hull-fouling or ballast water species; iii) warmer, better mixed coastal waters will experience enhanced algal production, which will be used by migrating species as food; iv) environmental suitability of coastal waters to southern invaders will be increased by seasonal warming. Here we will explore ballast water vectors associated with Laker and Arctic-bound vessels, as well as hull fouling for Arctic ships. We seek to test the hypothesis that enhanced ship traffic increases the rate at which species are introduced to these ecosystems. We will also test the environmental suitability for a number of the nonindigenous species to determine their potential for successful colonization and spread. We will also explore whether established populations of nonindigenous species in areas where they are not expected are comprised of invasive genotypes that are genetically different from source populations. These studies will be conducted on species that currently are spreading in Canada (e.g. zebra mussels, round gobies) or those that are anticipated to colonize in the near future (Chinese mitten crabs). These studies will inform conceptual models of how species spread and evolve during biological invasions.