Models to predict colonization, spread and evolution of invasive species

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Introduced nonindigenous species may have strong environmental, health and economic impacts, thus governments have placed a priority on identifying risks associated with their introduction to Canadian ecosystems. We have explored shipping vectors into the Great Lakes from overseas, although Laker vessels that move between the lakes and the St. Lawrence River have never been studied. Likewise, no studies have explored shipping vectors to the Arctic. The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to invasions because: i) enhanced seasonal retreat of pack ice will allow more species to disperse across the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean, ii) pack ice retreat will potentially allow ships to utilize the Northwest Passage, and introduce hull-fouling or ballast water species; iii) warmer, better mixed coastal waters will experience enhanced algal production, which will be used by migrating species as food; iv) environmental suitability of coastal waters to southern invaders will be increased by seasonal warming. Here we will explore ballast water vectors associated with Laker and Arctic-bound vessels, as well as hull fouling for Arctic ships. We seek to test the hypothesis that enhanced ship traffic increases the rate at which species are introduced to these ecosystems. We will also test the environmental suitability for a number of the nonindigenous species to determine their potential for successful colonization and spread. We will also explore whether established populations of nonindigenous species in areas where they are not expected are comprised of invasive genotypes that are genetically different from source populations. These studies will be conducted on species that currently are spreading in Canada (e.g. zebra mussels, round gobies) or those that are anticipated to colonize in the near future (Chinese mitten crabs). These studies will inform conceptual models of how species spread and evolve during biological invasions.