Spatial dynamics in ecology

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The research project will focus on quantitative models for spatial dynamics in ecology. Areas include (i) stochastic models for home range movements (ii) polar bear movement, body condition, and reproductive success under changing ice conditions (iii) sea lice and farmed and wild salmon (iv) models for stream and river populations under fluctuating environment and (v) dynamics, spread and control of mountain pine beetle. New animal movement models will be developed using the theory of adaptive dynamics, first passage time, state space modeling and partial differential equations. This will provide a structure for understanding complex home range movement patterns in wolves. The animal movement modelling approach will also be applied to polar bear populations as they adjust to changing ice conditions in the Canadian arctic. The eventual goal is to infer body condition and reproductive success in the bears. Both of these projects will use large data sets that involve satellite global positioning. The dynamics of populations in fluctuating rivers will be studied, with a focus on determining the interplay between physical flow conditions and river nutrients that govern population dynamics. Applications will be made to assessing the ecological impact of anthropogenic water removal on river communities in Alberta. The dynamics of disease between wildlife and domestic animals will be studied in the context agricultural production systems. Applications will include effects of spill-over and spill-back of parasites in aquaculture. The spatiotemporal dynamics and evolution of mountain pine beetle will be studies with a view to proposing appropriate control strategies. The proposed research will have impacts at several levels, producing new methods in mathematical ecology, developing new theoretical results in the ecology, and informing policy and decision making.