Analysis of ecological dynamics under environmental change

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Anthropogenic disturbance is reshaping our natural environment and the populations that live it in. Human activities are transporting invasive species and disturbing the balance in wildlife disease, global warming is shifting temperature isoclines, and rapid industrialization of pristine habitats is changing animal movement patterns. These environmental changes give rise to new problems: species are shifting and their genetic composition is changing, invasive species are spreading, some wildlife diseases are appearing in new locations and with increased frequency and intensity, and changes in animal movement patterns are modifying their ecological relationships and ability to survive. This research will understand and evaluate significant environmental problems whose root causes arise from anthropogenic disturbance. The focus will be on problems where there is a need for new models with a major quantitative component and where there are ample data to test hypotheses and look for management solutions. Sub-projects include: managing spread of invasive species (prevention and early detection for zebra mussel), wildlife disease (controlling parasitic sea lice outbreaks in salmon networks and infection dynamics and management of chronic wasting disease in deer populations), shifting species distributions under climate change (including impacts on genetic diversity and management and evolution in mountain pine beetle), changing animal movement patterns and their ecological consequences (polar bear, wolf, giant panda, mako shark, and tiger shark movement under environmental change). The research will develop new mathematical theory for environmental ecology, will provide methods for enhancing environmental stewardship and will develop tools for decision making. Much of the work will be in collaboration with field biologists and government researchers. This means that the majority of the mathematical and computational modelling work will be tested against field data and will be connected directly to management policy.