Development of dynamic operational risk management tool for processing system

处理系统动态操作风险管理工具开发

• 批准号: 445267-2012
• 负责人: Khan, Faisal
• 金额: $ 6.95万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=575037
• 关键词: Development; dynamic; operational; risk; management

Built upon the analysis of the frequency and consequences of potential accidents, risk assessment is an important tool for safety assessment in process, nuclear and aerospace industries. Although the frequency of events with consequences of high severity is often very low, one might hope but cannot expect this to hold true forever. The information available on the near misses and/or incidents of low severity can be used to predict high-severity accident sequences. Recent accidents, such as the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the series of explosions and fires at BP's refinery in 2005, are worrisome. In processing facilities, such as those used for oil and gas production and processing, accident precursors (abnormal events) occur on regular basis. The essence of dynamic risk assessment is to capture the abnormal events, and to subsequently update the operational risk in an informed manner. The real-time monitoring of an operation makes it possible to dynamically conduct risk analysis as abnormal events are observed. Fault identification, detection and diagnosis tools play a vital role in conducting real-time dynamic risk assessments. The outcomes of the project, models, methodologies and an integrated software suite for safety management are important for the industry. These outcomes will facilitate real-time evaluation of risk and the implementation of performance-based safety standards (for example, IEC 61580) in process facilities, and also will contribute to the development of advanced tools for online fault diagnosis and accident forecasting. The development of the proposed dynamic operational risk management system will benefit Canada by promoting inherently safer processing of natural resources in a cost-effective manner.

基于对潜在事故的频率和后果的分析，风险评估是过程，核和航空航天行业的安全评估的重要工具。尽管发生高严重性后果的事件的频率通常很低，但人们可能希望但不能指望它永远存在。有关近距离错过和/或低严重性事件的信息可用于预测高度事故序列。最近发生的事故，例如墨西哥湾的BP石油漏油事件以及2005年BP炼油厂的一系列爆炸和大火令人担忧。在加工设施（例如用于石油和天然气生产和加工的设施）中，事故前体（异常事件）定期发生。动态风险评估的本质是捕获异常事件，然后以知情的方式更新操作风险。对操作的实时监视使您可以动态进行风险分析，因为观察到异常事件。故障识别，检测和诊断工具在进行实时动态风险评估中起着至关重要的作用。该项目的结果，模型，方法论和用于安全管理的集成软件套件对行业很重要。这些结果将有助于对风险的实时评估，并在过程设施中实施基于绩效的安全标准（例如IEC 61580），这也将有助于开发用于在线故障诊断和事故预测的高级工具。拟议的动态操作风险管理系统的开发将通过以成本效益的方式促进自然资源的固有更安全处理来使加拿大受益。