Predicting annual allowable cut in a changing world // Prédire la possibilité forestière dans un contexte de changements globaux

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Forestry is among the top five contributors to Canada's net trade, and the forest industry is an important employer in many rural and remote communities. Good forest stewardship begins with sustainable forest harvesting quotas that maintain our current economic performance without compromising economic and social benefits to future generations. In Canada, the "Annual Allowable Cut" (AAC) that each province grants to forest companies is based on predictions from forest growth simulation models. These models are calibrated using forest mensuration data from the past. In other words, future yields are estimated from historical yields. The proposed research project is predicated on the principle that global environmental changes (GEC) are occurring at an increasingly higher rate, making it tenuous to predict future AAC based on past forest performance. Combining the expertise of ecologists, biogeochemists, tree physiologists and forest engineers, our project will study how different GECs (e.g. atmospheric CO2, higher temperature, drought, early snowmelt, N deposition) will affect soil fertility and the growth of trees. We will concentrate on black spruce, as this is the most economically important species in Québec. We will use a series of experiments that span several orders of resolution, from molecular to landscape level, in order to understand the mechanisms driving forest growth in a changing world. Thanks to cash contributions from supporting organizations, our students will perform 6 internships with partners from business and government. More specifically, students will perform internships with WSP Canada, an engineering firm that is developing forestry applications for the Woodstock modeling platform. Other students will concomitantly perform internships at the Chief Forester's office, in order to implement our research findings within the calculation of Quebec's AAC, using Woodstock. Our project will benefit Canada in 3 ways: (1) Improve our fundamental knowledge of GEC effects on forest resources, (2) Improve the accuracy and precision of forest inventories and planning, and (3) Train 21 students with essential skills that are required for R&D and sustainable management in the forestry sector.