Predicting annual allowable cut in a changing world // Prédire la possibilité forestière dans un contexte dechangements globaux

预测不断变化的世界中的年度允许砍伐量//Prédire la possibilité©forestière dans un contexte dechangements globaux

• 批准号: 462990-2014
• 负责人: Bradley, Robert
• 金额: $ 10.77万
• 依托单位: Université de Sherbrooke
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=598121
• 关键词: Predicting; annual; allowable; cut; changing

Forestry is among the top five contributors to Canada's net trade, and the forest industry is an important employer in many rural and remote communities. Good forest stewardship begins with sustainable forest harvesting quotas that maintain our current economic performance without compromising economic and social benefits to future generations. In Canada, the "Annual Allowable Cut" (AAC) that each province grants to forest companies is based on predictions from forest growth simulation models. These models are calibrated using forest mensuration data from the past. In other words, future yields are estimated from historical yields. The proposed research project is predicated on the principle that global environmental changes (GEC) are occurring at an increasingly higher rate, making it tenuous to predict future AAC based on past forest performance. Combining the expertise of ecologists, biogeochemists, tree physiologists and forest engineers, our project will study how different GECs (e.g. atmospheric CO2, higher temperature, drought, early snowmelt, N deposition) will affect soil fertility and the growth of trees. We will concentrate on black spruce, as this is the most economically important species in Québec. We will use a series of experiments that span several orders of resolution, from molecular to landscape level, in order to understand the mechanisms driving forest growth in a changing world. Thanks to cash contributions from supporting organizations, our students will perform 6 internships with partners from business and government. More specifically, students will perform internships with WSP Canada, an engineering firm that is developing forestry applications for the Woodstock modeling platform. Other students will concomitantly perform internships at the Chief Forester's office, in order to implement our research findings within the calculation of Quebec's AAC, using Woodstock. Our project will benefit Canada in 3 ways: (1) Improve our fundamental knowledge of GEC effects on forest resources, (2) Improve the accuracy and precision of forest inventories and planning, and (3) Train 21 students with essential skills that are required for R&D and sustainable management in the forestry sector.

林业是加拿大净贸易的前五位贡献者之一，林业是许多农村和偏远社区的重要雇主。良好的森林管理始于可持续的森林采伐配额，以维持我们当前的经济表现，同时又不损害子孙后代的经济和社会利益。在加拿大，每个省授予林业公司的“年度允许砍伐”（AAC）是基于森林生长模拟模型的预测。这些模型是使用过去的森林测量数据进行校准的。换句话说，未来收益率是根据历史收益率估算的。拟议的研究项目基于以下原则：全球环境变化（GEC）发生的速度越来越快，因此根据过去的森林表现来预测未来的 AAC 变得很脆弱。结合生态学家、生物地球化学家、树木生理学家和森林工程师的专业知识，我们的项目将研究不同的 GEC（例如大气二氧化碳、高温、干旱、早期融雪、氮沉降）如何影响土壤肥力和树木的生长。我们将重点关注黑云杉，因为这是魁北克经济上最重要的树种。我们将使用一系列跨越多个数量级分辨率（从分子水平到景观水平）的实验，以了解在不断变化的世界中驱动森林生长的机制。感谢支持组织的现金捐助，我们的学生将与企业和政府合作伙伴进行 6 次实习。更具体地说，学生将在 WSP Canada 实习，这是一家工程公司，正在为 Woodstock 建模平台开发林业应用程序。其他学生将同时在首席林务员办公室进行实习，以便利用伍德斯托克在魁北克省 AAC 的计算中应用我们的研究成果。我们的项目将从三个方面使加拿大受益：(1) 提高我们对 GEC 对森林资源影响的基础知识，(2) 提高森林清查和规划的准确性和精确性，(3) 培训 21 名学生，使其掌握林业部门研发和可持续管理所需的基本技能。