Mathematical modelling and simulation of product-innovation diffusion

产品创新扩散的数学建模与仿真

• 批准号: 485461-2015
• 负责人: Spiteri, Raymond
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Saskatchewan
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=584975
• 关键词: Mathematical; modelling; simulation; product; innovation

As online social platforms become increasingly important to advertising activities, customer engagement, and lead generation, online marketing is becoming an increasingly important component of marketing strategy of many businesses. Product innovation (specifically the launch of new products) is especially important for technology and software products because network effects are a significant barrier to adopting new technology products. As a result, many businesses that have outstanding products fail at the launch stage due to poor strategy and understanding of the psychological components driving new product adoption. Although there is a wide academic literature on the diffusion of new products in the marketplace, its mathematical intensity, retrospective focus, and highly theoretical nature make it difficult for businesses to operationalize the results. Empirical findings show that businesses are not making optimal decisions with regards to pricing and advertising, two of the major tools they have at their disposal to increase the chance of a successful new product launch. Accurate mathematical modelling and simulation allow for the testing of multiple hypotheses and scenarios and thus generally reduce the risk associated with implementing a given strategy. The research proposed in this project is to build models of product innovation and diffusion in order to better understand how to optimize the launch of new technology products. Simulations will be performed using agent-based modelling with state-of-the-art constructs for social networks and explicit consideration of consumer heterogeneity and the complex dynamics of social processes that shape diffusion. The predictions of the simulations will be validated using data from real networks and empirical results from the diffusion of real innovations. The industrial partner, Asmoteknologies, will be able to use this research to advise clients on their launch strategies and development of new technology products, thus expanding the scope and adding significant value to its consultative services.

随着在线社交平台对广告活动、客户参与度和 领先地位的产生，网络营销正在成为日益重要的营销战略的组成部分 很多企业。产品创新(特别是新产品的推出)对 技术和软件产品，因为网络效应是采用新技术的重大障碍 产品。因此，许多拥有优秀产品的企业在推出阶段都会因为业绩不佳而失败 对推动新产品采用的心理因素的策略和理解。 尽管有大量关于新产品在市场上扩散的学术文献，但其 数学强度、回溯性和高度理论性使企业很难 将成果付诸实施。经验研究结果表明，企业并没有做出最优决策 在定价和广告方面，他们拥有的两个主要工具可以增加 成功推出新产品。 精确的数学建模和模拟允许测试多个假设和情景以及 因此，总体上降低了与实施特定战略相关的风险。这项研究中提出的 项目是建立产品创新和扩散的模型，以便更好地了解如何优化 推出新技术产品。将使用基于代理的建模来执行模拟 最先进的社交网络结构，明确考虑消费者的异质性和 塑造扩散的社会过程的复杂动态。模拟的预测将得到验证 使用来自真实网络的数据和来自真实创新扩散的经验结果。 行业合作伙伴Asmoteknics将能够利用这项研究为客户提供推出建议 战略和新技术产品的开发，从而扩大范围和增加重大价值 到它的咨询服务。