Towards a better assessment of hydrological natural variability as a key adaptation strategy to climate change

尽管关于气候变化对水资源影响的研究已经完成，但很少有利益相关者愿意为遥远而不确定的未来制定适应战略。决策者更愿意适应投资回报较短（<20年）的战略。然而，在20年的时间跨度内，气候在很大程度上受自然变率的支配，而不受人为变化的支配。在许多情况下，基础设施不能很好地适应自然气候变率（更不用说气候变化了），因为在工程设计中通常假设平稳的随机过程，因此基本上忽略了这一点。

Despite all the research done on the impacts of climate change on water resources, few stakeholders have been willing to commit to adaptation strategies for a distant and uncertain future. Decision makers are more prepared to adapt to strategies with a shorter return on investment (<20 years). Over a 20-year horizon however, climate is strongly dominated by natural variability and not by human-induced change. In many cases, infrastructures are not well adapted to natural climate variability (let alone climate change), because it is essentially overlooked in engineering design which usually assumes stationary stochastic processes.