Towards a better assessment of hydrological natural variability as a key adaptation strategy to climate change

更好地评估水文自然变率作为气候变化的关键适应战略

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05048
• 负责人: Brissette, Francois
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: École de technologie supérieure
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=613326
• 关键词: Towards; better; assessment; hydrological; natural

Despite all the research done on the impacts of climate change on water resources, few stakeholders have been willing to commit to adaptation strategies for a distant and uncertain future. Decision makers are more prepared to adapt to strategies with a shorter return on investment (<20 years). Over a 20-year horizon however, climate is strongly dominated by natural variability and not by human-induced change. In many cases, infrastructures are not well adapted to natural climate variability (let alone climate change), because it is essentially overlooked in engineering design which usually assumes stationary stochastic processes. Consequently, adaptation to natural variability would be an efficient way to reduce vulnerabilities in the current and future climate. With an adequate knowledge of natural variability, robust no-regrets adaptation strategies could be devised. These strategies would be easier to sell to stakeholders because they would not be as clouded with uncertainties as those derived from climate change impact studies. This research program proposes an in-depth look at natural climate variability in hydrological sciences and how to harvest this knowledge to eventually improve engineering design practices and provide robust adaptation strategies to climate change. The main objectives are to: o Better describe and understand the natural variability of key hydrological variables over Canadian watersheds; and o Contrast the relative contributions of natural variability and climate change to hydrological vulnerability in both current and future climates. To move toward these long term goals, the following four specific objectives are proposed: - Study the natural climate variability on selected watersheds using the longest available traditional time-series; - Extend the historical record for key stations and watersheds using output data from the 20th century reanalysis project and long-range meteorological gridded data, combined with hydrological modelling; - Further our understanding of natural variability using three large ensembles of climate model simulations; and - Based on the 1980-2010 reference period, to contrast the impacts of natural variability and climate change for various future time horizons. This research program will provide stakeholders with a better understanding of our vulnerabilities to natural climate variability. Adapting to natural variability, as opposed to climate change, is likely to translate into more rapid actions by decision makers, while affording a significant protection against climate change. Considering that the cost of climate change in Canada is evaluated at between 21 and 43 billion dollars per year by 2050, any successful adaptation strategy will result in a very large saving for the Canadian economy.

尽管对气候变化对水资源的影响进行了大量研究，但很少有利益攸关方愿意承诺为遥远和不确定的未来制定适应战略。决策者更愿意适应投资回报较短（<20年）的战略。然而，在20年的时间范围内，气候主要是由自然变异而不是由人类引起的变化所决定的。在许多情况下，基础设施不能很好地适应自然气候变化（更不用说气候变化），因为它基本上是在工程设计中被忽视，通常假设平稳随机过程。 因此，适应自然变异将是减少当前和未来气候脆弱性的有效途径。在充分了解自然变异性的情况下，可以设计出强有力的无悔适应战略。这些战略将更容易向利益攸关方推销，因为它们不会像气候变化影响研究所得出的那样充满不确定性。该研究计划提出了水文科学中的自然气候变化的深入研究，以及如何收获这些知识，以最终改善工程设计实践，并提供强大的适应气候变化的战略。主要目标是： o更好地描述和了解加拿大流域关键水文变量的自然变异性; 对比自然变异和气候变化对当前和未来气候中水文脆弱性的相对影响。 为了实现这些长期目标，提出了以下四个具体目标： - 利用现有最长的传统时间序列研究选定流域的自然气候变异性; - 利用20世纪世纪再分析项目的输出数据和长期气象网格数据，结合水文模型，扩大关键站点和流域的历史记录; - 利用三个大型气候模式模拟集合进一步了解自然变率; - 以1980-2010年参照期为基础，对比自然变率和气候变化对未来不同时间范围的影响。 这项研究计划将使利益相关者更好地了解我们对自然气候变化的脆弱性。适应自然变异性而不是气候变化，可能会转化为决策者更迅速的行动，同时提供针对气候变化的重要保护。考虑到2050年，加拿大气候变化的成本估计为每年210亿至430亿美元，任何成功的适应战略都将为加拿大经济节省大量资金。