Modular hydrologic ensemble prediction system

模块化水文集合预报系统

• 批准号: 249582-2011
• 负责人: Coulibaly, Paulin
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=594285
• 关键词: Modular; hydrologic; ensemble; prediction; system

Continued changes in land cover such as urbanization, industrial development, mining, etc drastically affect the surface runoff in Canadian river basins. In addition, it is now well established that those environmental changes coupled with climate change are resulting in unprecedented changes in surface water (river flows, lakes, and reservoirs) at local and regional scales. Consequently, traditional hydrologic (e.g. streamflow) forecasting tools are not able to account for such dynamic changes in the watershed. Therefore, novel adaptive hydrologic prediction systems that can account for the impacts of human-climate-water interactions are critically needed to provide accurate and reliable hydrologic forecasts which is the essential information for water resources management. Accurate and reliable hydrologic forecasts are essential to domestic and industrial water supply planning, flood warning, drought mitigation, inland navigation, and hydroelectric power generation.

土地覆被的持续变化，如城市化、工业发展、采矿等，极大地影响了加拿大河流流域的地表径流。此外，现在已经确定的是，这些环境变化加上气候变化正在导致地方和区域范围内地表水（河流、湖泊和水库）发生前所未有的变化。因此，传统的水文（如径流）预测工具是无法解释这种动态变化的分水岭。因此，新的自适应水文预测系统，可以考虑到人类-气候-水的相互作用的影响，迫切需要提供准确和可靠的水文预报，这是水资源管理的基本信息。准确可靠的水文预报对于家庭和工业供水规划、洪水预警、干旱缓解、内陆航行和水力发电至关重要。