Plant persistence and dispersal at multiple scales

根据全球变化模型预测的物种分布和丰富程度的重大调整，使我们回到生态学的基本原理，预计将对生物多样性和自然资源产生前所未有的影响，包括经济影响。然而，预测土地利用变化和快速变暖对未来物种分布的综合影响的能力仍然非常有限。了解植物如何应对这些变化是重要的，因为植物结构的栖息地，提供资源给其他物种（包括人类），并调节生态地球化学流动。对于生态学家和保护专家来说，迫切需要协调在种群和群落水平上发生的生物过程的时间尺度和空间范围（例如，繁殖、扩散）与跟上全球模型所预测的环境变化的幅度和速度所需的资源。在这方面，当代物种入侵的教训可以提供信息，因为它们强调了物种快速适应反应的潜力，包括气候生态位的变化，促进物种迁移和范围扩大。这项研究将提供必要的先进知识，以了解和维持生态流管理景观在本世纪通过测试预测植物物种的性能和分布在不断变化的气候，使用现场观察，对照实验和建模。这项研究与我们集体参与生物多样性及其服务的养护和管理有直接关系，因为全球变化将不可避免地挑战我们许多管理决策所依据的公认二分法，例如本地物种与外来物种之间的二分法，稀有物种与常见物种之间的二分法，或受保护地区与未受保护地区之间的二分法。它将帮助我们走向一个动态的自然保护观。

The major reshuffling of species distribution and abundance predicted from global change models is sending us back to the fundamentals of ecology and is expected to have unprecedented impacts, including economic ones, on biodiversity and natural resources. Yet, the ability to predict the combined effects on the future distribution of species of land use changes and rapid warming remains remarkably limited. Understanding how plants respond to these changes is important as plants structure habitats, provide resources to other species (including humans), and regulate biogeochemical flows. For ecologists and conservation specialists, there is an urgent need to reconcile the time scales and spatial extents of biological processes occurring at population and community levels (e.g., reproduction, dispersal) with those required to keep up with the magnitude and speed of environmental changes predicted by global models. Lessons from contemporary species invasion can be informative in this context as they underscore the potential for rapid adaptive responses from species, including climatic niche shifts, in facilitating species migration and range expansion. This research will provide the advanced knowledge necessary to understand and sustain ecological flows in managed landscapes in this century by testing predictions about plant species performance and distribution in a changing climate using field observations, controlled experiments, and modelling. The research has direct relevance for our collective engagement towards the conservation and management of biodiversity and its services given that global changes will inevitably challenge the accepted dichotomies on which we base many of our management decisions, such as the one between native vs. exotic species, rare vs. common species, or protected vs. unprotected areas. It will help us move towards a dynamic view of nature conservation.