Robust design and modelling of solar houses: methodology and technologies

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Direct solar gain (AKA passive solar) strategies in houses (detached and row houses) are among the most cost-effective and simplest approaches to significantly reducing total household energy use. They use a combination of large high-performance south-facing windows, thermally-massive materials, and high levels of insulation and air-tightness. However, when designing solar houses using building performance simulation (BPS) many assumptions must be made about occupancy and occupant behaviour (e.g., window openings, electrical appliance use, and heating and cooling setpoints) - despite an [often] high degree of uncertainty. Thus, designers aiming for optimal designs are actually optimizing around a set of assumptions rather than real operating conditions. A greater risk is that the house's performance will be highly-sensitive to the accuracy of the assumptions and that it will under-perform relative to predicted results if and when reality deviates from the assumptions.