A new hydrologic model evaluation framework

为应对不断变化的气候和景观而做出合理的、基于科学的决策的能力对于保护加拿大的水资源至关重要。我们必须通过使用数学模拟模型来支持规划，以应对这些变化的未知影响，这有助于通过预测流量和水位、确定地下水补给、估计水的可用性和/或支持水质调查来支持决策。虽然这种水资源系统的水文模型经常被用于各级政府的政策制定，并帮助资源管理者做出重要的业务决策，但目前用于评估这些模型是否适合支持决策的方法是不够的，特别是在一个快速变化的世界中，在没有保证未来与过去相似的情况下。当前用于评估模型效用的模型评估或测试程序（即模型验证）目前被定义为通过将模型预测与过去数据进行比较来回顾过去，因此无法正确评估给定的水文模型是否实际上对其预期目的有用。该研究计划将确定根本不同的、前瞻性的、决策导向的水文模型测试/评估程序。将开发新的方法，通过识别模型开发选择来改进模型，从而最大限度地提高模型的可靠性，从而正确地告知决策。因此，新的模型评估研究计划有望帮助塑造未来在水文建模方面的实践状况和科学状况，以支持决策。新的模型评价框架也将适用于其他类型的环境或水资源模拟模型。

The ability to make sound, science-based, decisions in response to a changing climate and changing landscape is critically important for protecting Canada's water resources. One means we have to support planning in response to the unknown impacts of these changes is via the use of mathematical simulation models, which help support decision-making by predicting flows and water levels, determining recharge to groundwater, estimating water availability, and/or supporting water quality investigations. Although such hydrologic models of water resources systems are regularly used to inform policy at various levels of government and help resource managers make important operating decisions, the current methods used to evaluate the suitability of these models to support decision-making are insufficient, particularly in a rapidly changing world where there is no guarantee the future is similar to the past. The current model evaluation or testing procedures used to evaluate the utility of a model, (i.e., model validation) is currently defined to look backwards by comparing model predictions to past data and thus unable to properly assess whether a given hydrological model is actually useful for its intended purpose. This research program will identify fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing/evaluation procedures. New methods will be developed for improving models through identification of model development choices that maximize the reliability of a model to correctly inform decisions. The novel model evaluation research program is therefore expected to help shape the future state-of-practice and state-of-the-science with regard to hydrologic modelling in support of decision-making. The new model evaluation framework will also be applicable to other types of environmental or water resources simulation models.