A new hydrologic model evaluation framework

一种新的水文模型评估框架

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04421
• 负责人: Tolson, Bryan
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=707989
• 关键词: new; hydrologic; model; evaluation; framework

The ability to make sound, science-based, decisions in response to a changing climate and changing landscape is critically important for protecting Canada's water resources. One means we have to support planning in response to the unknown impacts of these changes is via the use of mathematical simulation models, which help support decision-making by predicting flows and water levels, determining recharge to groundwater, estimating water availability, and/or supporting water quality investigations. Although such hydrologic models of water resources systems are regularly used to inform policy at various levels of government and help resource managers make important operating decisions, the current methods used to evaluate the suitability of these models to support decision-making are insufficient, particularly in a rapidly changing world where there is no guarantee the future is similar to the past. The current model evaluation or testing procedures used to evaluate the utility of a model, (i.e., model validation) is currently defined to look backwards by comparing model predictions to past data and thus unable to properly assess whether a given hydrological model is actually useful for its intended purpose. This research program will identify fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing/evaluation procedures. New methods will be developed for improving models through identification of model development choices that maximize the reliability of a model to correctly inform decisions. The novel model evaluation research program is therefore expected to help shape the future state-of-practice and state-of-the-science with regard to hydrologic modelling in support of decision-making. The new model evaluation framework will also be applicable to other types of environmental or water resources simulation models.

为应对不断变化的气候和不断变化的景观做出合理、基于科学的决策的能力，对于保护加拿大的水资源至关重要。我们必须支持规划以应对这些变化的未知影响的一种方法是通过使用数学模拟模型，通过预测流量和水位，确定地下水的补给，估计水的可用性和/或支持水质调查来帮助支持决策。虽然这种水资源系统的水文模型经常被用来告知各级政府的政策，并帮助资源管理人员作出重要的经营决策，目前的方法来评估这些模型的适用性，以支持决策是不够的，特别是在一个快速变化的世界，没有保证未来是类似于过去。用于评估模型效用的当前模型评估或测试程序（即，模型验证）目前被定义为通过将模型预测与过去的数据进行比较来回顾，因此无法正确评估给定的水文模型是否实际上对其预期目的有用。 该研究计划将确定根本不同的，前瞻性的，以决策为导向的水文模型测试/评估程序。将制定新的方法，通过确定模型开发选择，最大限度地提高模型的可靠性，以正确地为决策提供信息，从而改进模型。因此，新的模型评估研究计划，预计将有助于塑造未来的实践和国家的科学水文建模，以支持决策。 新的模型评估框架也将适用于其他类型的环境或水资源模拟模型。