Modelling glacier and ice sheet response to climate change

模拟冰川和冰盖对气候变化的响应

• 批准号: 227436-2009
• 负责人: Marshall, Shawn
• 金额: $ 4.66万
• 依托单位: University of Calgary
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=617779
• 关键词: Modelling; glacier; ice; sheet; response

This research program aims to improve understanding of glacier and ice sheet response to climate change. My research group uses a combination of glaciological modelling and glacier-climate field studies to assess changes in glacier mass balance and to examine the role of glaciers as a dynamic component of Earth's climate system. Regionally, glacier and icefield retreat affects alpine ecology, tourism, hydroelectric power generation, and the supply of surface water for significant population bases and agricultural activities. We are developing glaciological models to simulate glacier and ice sheet evolution over decadal time scales. Field studies for the period 2009-2014 will focus on historical and future icefield changes and water resource implications in western Canada, building on our established research program on the Haig Glacier, Canadian Rockies. Beginning in spring 2009, we will expand these efforts to the Illecillewaet Glacier, Glacier National Park, B.C. The Illecillewaet is a headwaters region of the Columbia River, with a high percentage of glacier cover and a more maritime-influenced climate. Meteorological controls of snow accumulation and snow/ice melt may differ significantly from those in the Canadian Rockies. Globally, glacier and ice sheet retreat has accelerated the rate of sea level rise, with considerable uncertainty as to how much additional sea-level rise can be expected this century. Advances in coupled glacier-climate modelling are needed to address this. This includes a number of numerical modelling issues that we aim to confront: the inclusion of higher-order terms in the ice sheet stress balance, improvements to the numerical representation of glacier and ice sheet margins, and downscaling strategies for regional climate patterns in areas of complex topography. Climate fields need to be extrapolated from sparse observational records or interpolated from climate models (or reanalyses) to the scale of influence for glacier and ice sheet mass balance, order 1-10 km. Our field studies support the numerical modelling through examination of mass balance processes and high-elevation temperature and precipitation gradients, providing constraints on free parameters in regional- and global-scale glaciological modelling.

这项研究计划旨在提高对冰川和冰盖对气候变化反应的理解。我的研究小组使用冰川学建模和冰川气候实地研究相结合的方法来评估冰川质量平衡的变化，并研究冰川作为地球气候系统动态组成部分的作用。在区域一级，冰川和冰原的退缩影响到高山生态、旅游业、水力发电以及重要人口基地和农业活动所需的地表水供应。我们正在开发冰川学模型，以模拟冰川和冰盖在十年时间尺度上的演变。2009年至2014年期间的实地研究将侧重于历史和未来的冰原变化和水资源的影响，在加拿大西部，建立在我们既定的黑格冰川，加拿大落基山脉的研究计划。从2009年春天开始，我们将把这些努力扩大到不列颠哥伦比亚省冰川国家公园的Ijuillewaet冰川。Ijuillewaet是哥伦比亚河的源头地区，冰川覆盖率高，气候受海洋影响更大。积雪和冰雪融化的气象控制可能与加拿大落基山脉有很大不同。在全球范围内，冰川和冰盖的退缩加快了海平面上升的速度，对于本世纪预计海平面还会上升多少，存在相当大的不确定性。要解决这个问题，需要在冰川-气候耦合建模方面取得进展。这包括一些数值模拟的问题，我们的目标是面对：在冰盖应力平衡，冰川和冰盖边缘的数值表示的改进，并在复杂的地形区域的区域气候模式的尺度缩小战略中的高阶项的列入。气候场需要从稀疏的观测记录中推断出来，或从气候模型（或再分析）中插入，以达到冰川和冰盖质量平衡的影响范围，大约1-10公里。我们的实地研究支持通过检查质量平衡过程和高海拔温度和降水梯度的数值模拟，提供区域和全球尺度的冰川学建模的自由参数的限制。