Virtual weather observations, forecasting and validation

Pelmorex Media Inc.通过天气网络为加拿大和世界其他地区的消费者和商业客户提供高质量的天气信息。通过电视、互联网和移动电话对加拿大约20,000个站点进行预测，并强调及时交付。虽然目前有大约1000个预报地点的观测资料，但更多地点没有现场观测资料。我们研究的目的是提供一种使用“虚拟观测引擎”（VOE）生成最佳估计的方法。Pelmorex有一个原型引擎，利用从现有数据（包括加拿大约1000个气象站和全球7000个气象站）和数值天气预报中进行插值。我们的目标是通过使用数据同化技术来改进虚拟观测引擎，并使用简单的指南或高分辨率的边界层流模型来仔细地缩小尺度。此外，约克大学（陈博士的小组）目前正在使用WRF（天气研究与预报）模型，并在MITACS支持的与Pelmorex的联合项目中吸收一系列数据，包括雷达风廓线数据。目前主要集中在南安大略，但将扩展到测试这种方法作为VOE在全国其他技术难以预测可靠虚拟观测的关键地点或地区的使用。泰勒博士的团队与Pelmorex公司合作，评估了他们的原型VOE的性能。即使在地形较为复杂的地区，当地地形和地表性质（如粗糙度和反照率）的变化的影响也可以在决定当地风和温度方面发挥重要作用。目的是开发在虚拟观测引擎方法中更好地考虑这些因素的方法。

Pelmorex Media Inc. via The Weather Network provide high quality weather information to consumers and commercial clients across Canada and in other parts of the world. Forecasts for approximately 20,000 sites in Canada are distributed via TV, internet and mobile phones with an emphasis on timely delivery. While current observations are available for about 1,000 of these forecast locations there are many more without in-situ observations. The aim of our research is to provide a methodology to generate best estimates with a "Virtual Observation Engine" (VOE).Pelmorex have a prototype engine using interpolations from available data (including about 1,000 weather stations in Canada and 7,000 world wide) coupled with numerical weather prediction forecasts. We will aim to improve the virtual observation engine through the use of data assimilation techniques, and careful down-scaling using simple guidelines or high resolution boundary-layer flow models. In addition York University (Dr Chen's group) are currently using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and assimilating a range of data, including radar wind profiler data, in a joint, MITACS supported, project with Pelmorex. This is currently focused on Southern Ontario but will be expanded to test the use of this approach as a VOE for critical locations or areas across the country where other techniques have difficulty in predicting reliable virtual observations. Dr Taylor's group have worked with Pelmorex to assess the performance of their prototype VOE. In areas of even moderately complex terrain the effects of local topography and variations in surface properties (such as roughness and albedo) can play a significant role in determining local wind and temperature. The aim is to develop approaches which take better account of these factors within the Virtual Observation Engine approach.