High resolution modelling of weather over the Grand Banks

伍德环境和基础设施解决方案为纽芬兰近海的石油和天然气工业运营提供详细的天气预报。其中的挑战是大风，波涛汹涌的大海和雾。这影响到这些设施的安全运行以及设备和人员的运输。我们的大部分活动将集中在评估和改进WRF（NCAR开发的天气研究和预报模型）在大浅滩地区天气预报中的应用。模型的输出可以为波浪模型（WW 3）提供输入，并将探索与海洋和波浪模型的耦合。其目标是改善恶劣天气的预报，包括大风和大雾，以及波浪条件，以便海上设施及其周围的作业能够安全有效地进行。雾在海上地点阻止直升机降落的潜在影响是一个具体问题，更好的预报可以避免“飞去来器飞行”。重要的因素将涉及确定在模型运行时吸收哪些数据。这可能包括来自GOES-E和其他卫星的信息，以及在海上设施或该地区船只上进行的现场测量。大浅滩是世界上雾最多的地方之一，夏季雾的发生率高达50%。在地球大气边界层中，水蒸气凝结成液滴并形成雾或低云，涉及热量和水蒸气的湍流混合、云的微物理过程和热量的辐射传递之间的复杂平衡。提高我们对导致这些海洋雾事件发生、强度、深度和持续性的条件的定量理解是研究的第二个重点。与这些活动密切相关的是，我们将寻求改进WRF和其他天气预报模式中雾的处理方法，应用WRF模式，在单列和业务三维模式中，并评估该地区的雾，大风和使用WW 3的海况的性能。

Wood Environment and Infrastructure Solutions provide detailed weather forecasts for oil & gas industry operations offshore from Newfoundland. Among the challenges are high winds, rough seas and fog. These impact the safe operation of these facilities, and the transportation of equipment and personnel. Most of our activity will center on evaluation and improving the application of WRF (the Weather Research and Forecasting model developed at NCAR) to weather forecasting in the Grand Banks area. Output from the model can provide input to a wave model (WW3) and couplings with ocean and wave models will be explored. The goal is to improve the forecasts of adverse weather, including high winds and fog, plus wave conditions so that operations on and around offshore installations can be conducted safely and efficiently. The potential impacts of fog at offshore sites preventing helicopter landings is a specific issue where better forecasting can avoid "boomerang flights". Important factors will involve determining which data to assimilate when the models are run operationally. This may include information from GOES-E and other satellites as well as in-situ measurements made on the offshore facilities or from ships in the area.The Grand Banks is among the foggiest places in the world with fog occurring up to 50% of the time in the summer months. The condensation of water vapour into droplets and the creation of fog or low cloud in the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer involves a complex balance between turbulent mixing of heat and water vapour, cloud micro-physical processes and radiative transfers of heat. Improving our quantitative understanding of the conditions leading to the occurrence, intensity, depth and persistence of these marine fog events is a secondary focus of the study. Coupled closely with these activities we will be seeking ways to refine the treatment of fog in WRF and other weather forecast models, applying the WRF model, in both Single Column and operational 3-D modes and evaluating the performance in this region, for fog, high winds and, using WW3, for sea state.