The influence of environmental change and evolution on population dynamics

环境变化和进化对种群动态的影响

• 批准号: 436203-2013
• 负责人: Williams, Jennifer
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=631694
• 关键词: influence; environmental; change; evolution; population

Understanding how environmental change drives population dynamics of species is a long-standing goal of ecology. It is also critical for our ability to effectively conserve and manage threatened and invasive species, because environmental change can play a huge role in whether populations invade, persist or go extinct. More recently, scientists have begun to recognize that evolution on contemporary time scales can also play a role in influencing population dynamics. A current challenge in ecology is to integrate the role of evolution in population dynamics with the major environmental changes the world currently faces, including climate change and habitat fragmentation. My research program will tackle this challenge in two complementary ways. First, we will examine how variability in the environment affects the timing of when plants flower and how much energy they allocate to making flowers and seeds. We will determine which strategies are optimal given current levels of climate variation, and make predictions for how increasing variability will influence the optimal strategies of the plants and the ability of populations to persist. Our results will contribute to evaluating long-standing theory and will highlight characteristics of species that may be more vulnerable to climate change. Second, we will investigate the process of populations spreading through new habitats. Understanding the process of spread is crucial to understanding which native species will be able to shift their ranges with climate change and which introduced species are likely to become the most invasive. Specifically, we will study the role of evolution and interactions with other species on the speed at which a target species can move through continuous compared to fragmented habitats. Our work will include the first field experiments to tackle these questions, and our results will play an important role in the advancement of this field and contribute to more effective conservation and management strategies.

了解环境变化如何驱动物种的种群动态是生态学长期追求的目标。这对我们有效地保护和管理受威胁和入侵物种的能力也是至关重要的，因为环境变化可以在种群入侵、生存或灭绝方面发挥巨大作用。最近，科学家们开始认识到，当代时间尺度上的进化也可以在影响种群动态方面发挥作用。生态学目前面临的一个挑战是将进化在种群动态中的作用与世界目前面临的主要环境变化结合起来，包括气候变化和栖息地碎片化。我的研究计划将以两种互补的方式应对这一挑战。首先，我们将研究环境的变异性如何影响植物开花的时间以及它们分配给开花和种子的能量。考虑到当前的气候变化水平，我们将确定哪些策略是最优的，并预测不断增加的变异性将如何影响植物的最佳策略和种群的持续能力。我们的结果将有助于评估长期存在的理论，并将突出可能更容易受到气候变化影响的物种的特征。其次，我们将调查种群通过新栖息地传播的过程。了解传播过程对于了解哪些本土物种将能够随着气候变化改变它们的活动范围以及哪些引进物种可能成为最具侵入性的物种至关重要。具体地说，我们将研究进化和与其他物种的相互作用对目标物种通过连续栖息地与零散栖息地的速度的影响。我们的工作将包括解决这些问题的第一次实地试验，我们的结果将在这一领域的发展中发挥重要作用，并有助于制定更有效的保护和管理战略。