Bridging the gaps between data collection and prediction at thunderstorm scales

缩小雷暴规模数据收集和预测之间的差距

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-04475
• 负责人: Fabry, Frédéric
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=633650
• 关键词: Bridging; gaps; between; data; collection

While weather forecasting in general is showing steady progress, the timeliness and quality of warnings for severe and damaging weather has not markedly improved in the past decade. This occurs even though the tools and approaches used (forecasting models, computers, etc) have become more sophisticated. We hence believe this lack of progress is due to the fact that the current state of the atmosphere, necessary to make any forecast, is not correctly assessed. If this is the case, then we need to perform more research work on how to better measure the atmosphere in conditions when and where severe weather can occur, as well as on how to improve how the measurements are being used to provide information to weather forecasting tools. Since storm formation and evolution is critically dependent on temperature and humidity patterns, and since those are poorly measured over large areas with existing instruments, particularly in cloudy or stormy conditions, it is on this task that we will put most of our efforts.

虽然天气预报总体上显示出稳步进展，但过去十年来，严重和破坏性天气警报的及时性和质量没有明显改善。即使使用的工具和方法（预测模型、计算机等）变得更加复杂，也会出现这种情况。因此，我们认为，缺乏进展的原因是没有正确评估目前的大气状况，而这是作出任何预报所必需的。如果是这样的话，那么我们需要进行更多的研究工作，研究如何在恶劣天气可能发生的时间和地点更好地测量大气，以及如何改进测量方法，为天气预报工具提供信息。由于风暴的形成和演变在很大程度上取决于温度和湿度模式，而且由于现有仪器在大面积上测量得很差，特别是在多云或暴风雨的条件下，我们将把大部分精力放在这项任务上。