Bridging the gaps between data collection and prediction at thunderstorm scales

虽然天气预报总体上稳步发展，但在过去十年中，恶劣和破坏性天气预警的及时性和质量并没有明显改善。即使使用的工具和方法（预测模型、计算机等）变得更加复杂，这种情况也会发生。因此，我们认为，这种缺乏进展是由于没有正确地评估作出任何预测所必需的大气现状。如果是这样的话，那么我们需要进行更多的研究工作，研究如何更好地测量恶劣天气发生的时间和地点，以及如何改进测量结果，为天气预报工具提供信息。由于风暴的形成和演变严重依赖于温度和湿度模式，而现有仪器在大范围内的测量效果很差，特别是在多云或暴风雨的情况下，我们将把大部分精力放在这项任务上。******为了在未来五年推进这项任务，我们将进行多管齐下的研究工作。也就是说，我们将：******-改进从现有仪器获得的信息：我们的重点将是继续发展一种基于雷达的技术，以获取通常导致风暴的地表附近空气湿度的信息；******-测试新仪器：我们将评估由这里开发的新原型仪器获得的测量结果，该仪器旨在获得大面积低层大气中的温度和湿度信息；******-修订目前使用测量来初始化预报模型的方法：我们将开发关于如何更好地吸收或利用来自测量的信息以获得更准确和完整的大气状态描述的新想法。具体来说，我们希望设计新的方法来获取我们所拥有的关于现在和过去的信息，并更好地推断导致它们的大气状态，重点是检索与未来状态最相关的信息。******与此同时，我们将继续发展一种简单而有效的降水预报方法，利用降水雷达回波的时间演变来确定这些回波在未来的变化。******本研究将主要由本科生和研究生在我的指导下进行。我们的希望是，综合起来，所有这些研究方向将有助于消除对洪水、冰雹和龙卷风等破坏性天气进行更好预报的主要障碍

While weather forecasting in general is showing steady progress, the timeliness and quality of warnings for severe and damaging weather has not markedly improved in the past decade. This occurs even though the tools and approaches used (forecasting models, computers, etc) have become more sophisticated. We hence believe this lack of progress is due to the fact that the current state of the atmosphere, necessary to make any forecast, is not correctly assessed. If this is the case, then we need to perform more research work on how to better measure the atmosphere in conditions when and where severe weather can occur, as well as on how to improve how the measurements are being used to provide information to weather forecasting tools. Since storm formation and evolution is critically dependent on temperature and humidity patterns, and since those are poorly measured over large areas with existing instruments, particularly in cloudy or stormy conditions, it is on this task that we will put most of our efforts.******To advance this task over the next five years, we will undertake a multi-pronged research effort. Namely, we will:******- Improve the information obtained from existing instruments: Our focus will be on continuing the development of a radar-based technique to obtain information of the humidity of air close to the surface that generally feed storms;******- Test a new instrument: We will evaluate the measurements obtained by a new prototype instrument developed here and designed to get information on temperature and humidity in the lower atmosphere over large areas;******- Revise current approaches to use measurements to initialize forecast models: We will develop new ideas on how to better assimilate or take advantage of the information coming from measurements to obtain a more accurate and complete description of the state of the atmosphere. Specifically, we want to devise new ways to take the information we have about the present and the past and better infer the state of the atmosphere that caused them with a focus on retrieving information most relevant to its future state.******In parallel, we will continue the development of a simple yet effective approach to forecast precipitation by using the time evolution of radar echoes of precipitation to determine what these will do in the future.******This research will be primarily performed by undergraduate and graduate students under my supervision. Our hope is that, in combination, all these lines of inquiry will help eliminate the main obstacle to better forecasts of damaging weather such as floods, hail, and tornadoes.**