Predicting and interpolating Canada's future precipitation extremes across climate regions

随着加拿大气候的演变，更好地了解极端降水的模式至关重要。工程师使用图表跟踪降雨事件的历史强度，持续时间和频率，以确保他们的设计符合排水标准。工程师经常使用过时的气象站数据集，这些数据集在地理上与他们的设计项目相距甚远。提案人创建了一个工具，用于为安大略交通部（MTO）在气象站之间插入这些图表（称为IDF曲线）。拟议的研究计划扩展和改进了这项工作，确认历史数据的时间趋势，并推断结果，建立一个气候变化模型的降水。该项目的研究将使加拿大工程师能够根据经过地理校正的降水模式设计基础设施项目，这些降水模式将在项目的整个设计寿命期间保持相关性，并提高对加拿大区域气候过程的科学认识。

As Canada’s climate evolves, a better understanding of the patterns of precipitation extremes is critical. Engineers use charts that track the historic intensity, duration, and frequency of rainfall events to ensure their designs meet drainage standards. Frequently engineers use outdated weather station datasets that are geographically distant to their design projects. The Proponent created a tool that interpolates these charts, known as IDF curves, between weather stations for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO). The proposed research program expands and improves upon this work by confirming time trends in the historic data and extrapolating the results to build a climate change model for precipitation. The Proponent’s research will enable Canadian engineers to design infrastructure projects based on geographically-corrected precipitation patterns that will stay relevant for the entire design life of their projects, and improve scientific understanding of Canada’s regional climatological processes.