Predicting and interpolating Canada's future precipitation extremes across climate regions

随着加拿大气候的演变，更好地了解极端降水的模式至关重要。工程师使用图表来跟踪降雨事件的历史强度、持续时间和频率，以确保他们的设计符合排水标准。工程师经常使用过时的气象站数据集，这些数据集在地理上与他们的设计项目相距甚远。支持者为安大略省交通部(MTO)创造了一种工具，可以在气象站之间插入这些图表，称为IDF曲线。拟议的研究计划通过确认历史数据中的时间趋势并外推结果来建立降水的气候变化模型，从而扩展和改进了这项工作。支持者的研究将使加拿大工程师能够根据经过地理校正的降水模式设计基础设施项目，这些模式将与他们项目的整个设计生命周期保持相关，并提高对加拿大区域气候过程的科学理解。*IDF外推为预测奠定了坚实的基础。政府间气候变化专门委员会极端事件特别报告(IPCC SREX)指出，预计气温上升几乎是确定的，强降水的频率可能会增加。这项研究量化了不确定性，并允许监管者和设计师通过将地区复杂性考虑到他们的预测中来细化他们的置信限。这个问题中的关键变量是极端降水、极端温度和时间。Clausius-Clapeyron比率(CCR)是联系极端降水和极端温度的理论比率。随着气温的升高，降水量每摄氏度上升5.9%至7.7%。温度是一个很好的协变量，不仅因为它与降雨量的关系，还因为温度预测的可靠性。*将支持者的研究扩展到加拿大是复杂的。山脉等地理因素带来了新的问题。支持者将建立地区方程，以不同的方式衡量这些因素。然后，考虑时间和温度，并使用CCR，倡导者将在全国范围内预测极端降水量。*这项研究将为基础设施规划提供客观性和一致性。这将为将IDF内插和投影应用于新的区域提供宝贵的见解，不仅是在加拿大，而且是在全球。它将节省工程师的设计时间，降低设计前后昂贵项目的风险，并每年为加拿大的基础设施建设节省数百万美元。这项研究还将有助于未来的水文学和大气研究，因为它将提高对温度和降水随时间变化的区域关系的科学理解。

As Canada's climate evolves, a better understanding of the patterns of precipitation extremes is critical. Engineers use charts that track the historic intensity, duration, and frequency of rainfall events to ensure their designs meet drainage standards. Frequently engineers use outdated weather station datasets that are geographically distant to their design projects. The Proponent created a tool that interpolates these charts, known as IDF curves, between weather stations for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO). The proposed research program expands and improves upon this work by confirming time trends in the historic data and extrapolating the results to build a climate change model for precipitation. The Proponent's research will enable Canadian engineers to design infrastructure projects based on geographically-corrected precipitation patterns that will stay relevant for the entire design life of their projects, and improve scientific understanding of Canada's regional climatological processes. ******IDF extrapolation creates a solid basis for forecasting. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events (IPCC SREX) states that projected rises in temperature are virtually certain and it is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation will increase. This research quantifies uncertainty and allows regulators and designers to refine their confidence limits by factoring regional complexities into their projections.******The key variables in this problem are extreme precipitation, extreme temperature, and time. The Clausius-Clapeyron Rate (CCR) is a theoretical ratio linking extreme precipitation and extreme temperature. As temperatures rise, precipitation rises between 5.9% and 7.7% per degree Celsius. Temperature is an excellent covariate not only because of its relationship to precipitation, but also because of the reliability of temperature projections.******To expand the Proponent's research across Canada is complex. Geographic factors such as mountains introduce new problems. The Proponent will develop regional equations to weigh these factors differently. Then, factoring time and temperature, and using the CCR, the Proponent will project precipitation extremes across the country.******This research will provide objectivity and consistency for infrastructure planning. It will grant valuable insight for applying IDF interpolation and projection to new regions, not just in Canada, but globally. It will save engineers design time, reduce the risk of costly project over and under design, and save millions annually for Canadian infrastructure construction. The research will also aid future hydrological and atmospheric research, as it will improve the scientific understanding of regional relationships between temperature and precipitation over time.