Improving future predictions of Arctic sea ice and impact of a changing Arctic on the ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem

改进对北极海冰的未来预测以及北极变化对海洋、大气和生态系统的影响

• 批准号: 327673-2013
• 负责人: Tremblay, Bruno
• 金额: $ 3.5万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634201
• 关键词: Improving; future; predictions; Arctic; sea

Global Climate Models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - fourth and fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4/5) show that transition to a summertime ice-free Arcticcould occur both abruptly and earlier than previously anticipated. The fact that all AR5 models still underestimate the decline in sea-ice extent as compared to the satellite record (1979-2006) suggests,however, that something in our understanding of the Arctic climate system is lacking. The overall objective of the work is to 1- improve the forecast of future sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean and its peripheral Seas, 2- identify/study oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric processes responsible for the sea ice decline, and 3- study the impact of such changes on atmospheric circulation patterns and wildlife that depends on the sea ice for their livelihood. The specific objective of the work is to quantify small scale processes in GCMs that are important in the sea ice mass balance. In this proposal we place special emphasis on the sea ice (lead representation), vertical ocean heat fluxes (through both advection and turbulent mixing), and atmospheric boundary layer processes (i.e. (mis)representation of the surface inversion in GCMs and its impact on clouds and the surfaceradiative balance). The impact of Arctic climate change will focus primarily on the effect of retreating sea ice on storm tracks and precipitation patterns, and the geographical changes and timing ofchanges in habitat for ice-dependent species. The completion of this work will lead to 1- better constraints on projection of future Arctic climate change, 2- a better understanding of small scales oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer processes having a strong impact on the sea ice mass balance, and 3- still more efficient numerical solver for the sea-ice models that are being implemented in Global Climate Models and operational forecasts models from Environment Canada. This research program will place Canada in a unique position to better assess the changing Arctic and how it can affect local marine ecosystem, economic development of the Canadian Arctic, and local Inuit population, whose lifestyle is intimately linked with the presence of ice.

参加政府间气候变化小组的全球气候模型（GCM） - 第四和第五评估报告（IPCC-AR4/5）表明，过渡到夏季无冰的无冰的北极星可能会突然发生，并且比以前预期的早发生。与卫星记录（1979-2006）相比，所有AR5模型仍然低估了海冰范围的下降，但是，我们对北极气候系统的理解中缺乏一些东西。这项工作的总体目的是1-改善对北极海洋及其外围海洋未来海冰状况的预测，2-识别/研究海洋，海冰和大气过程，导致海冰的衰落，3-研究此类变化对大气循环模式和野生生物的影响，依赖于海冰的野生生物。这项工作的具体目标是量化在海冰质量平衡中很重要的GCM中的小规模过程。在此提案中，我们特别强调海冰（铅代表），垂直海洋热通量（通过对流和湍流混合）以及大气边界层过程（即（MIS）表示GCMS中的表面反演及其对云的影响及其对云的影响及其对表面性的平衡）。北极气候变化的影响主要集中在撤退海冰对风暴轨迹和降水模式上的影响，以及栖息地中依赖冰的物种中的地理变化和时机。这项工作的完成将导致1-更好的限制对未来北极气候变化的预测，2-更好地理解小规模的海洋和大气边界层过程，对海冰质量平衡产生了强烈影响，3-在全球气候模型和运营模型中正在实现的SEA-ICE模型的3-更有效的数值求解器。该研究计划将使加拿大处于独特的位置，以更好地评估北极的变化及其如何影响当地海洋生态系统，加拿大北极的经济发展以及当地的因纽特人种群，其生活方式与冰的存在密切相关。