Improving future predictions of Arctic sea ice and impact of a changing Arctic on the ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem

改进对北极海冰的未来预测以及北极变化对海洋、大气和生态系统的影响

• 批准号: 327673-2013
• 负责人: Tremblay, Bruno
• 金额: $ 3.5万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634201
• 关键词: Improving; future; predictions; Arctic; sea

Global Climate Models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - fourth and fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4/5) show that transition to a summertime ice-free Arcticcould occur both abruptly and earlier than previously anticipated. The fact that all AR5 models still underestimate the decline in sea-ice extent as compared to the satellite record (1979-2006) suggests,however, that something in our understanding of the Arctic climate system is lacking. The overall objective of the work is to 1- improve the forecast of future sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean and its peripheral Seas, 2- identify/study oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric processes responsible for the sea ice decline, and 3- study the impact of such changes on atmospheric circulation patterns and wildlife that depends on the sea ice for their livelihood. The specific objective of the work is to quantify small scale processes in GCMs that are important in the sea ice mass balance. In this proposal we place special emphasis on the sea ice (lead representation), vertical ocean heat fluxes (through both advection and turbulent mixing), and atmospheric boundary layer processes (i.e. (mis)representation of the surface inversion in GCMs and its impact on clouds and the surfaceradiative balance). The impact of Arctic climate change will focus primarily on the effect of retreating sea ice on storm tracks and precipitation patterns, and the geographical changes and timing ofchanges in habitat for ice-dependent species. The completion of this work will lead to 1- better constraints on projection of future Arctic climate change, 2- a better understanding of small scales oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer processes having a strong impact on the sea ice mass balance, and 3- still more efficient numerical solver for the sea-ice models that are being implemented in Global Climate Models and operational forecasts models from Environment Canada. This research program will place Canada in a unique position to better assess the changing Arctic and how it can affect local marine ecosystem, economic development of the Canadian Arctic, and local Inuit population, whose lifestyle is intimately linked with the presence of ice.

参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次和第五次评估报告（IPCC-AR 4/5）的全球气候模型（GCM）表明，北极向夏季无冰的过渡可能会突然发生，而且比以前预期的要早。然而，与卫星记录（1979-2006年）相比，所有AR 5模型仍然低估了海冰范围的减少，这一事实表明，我们对北极气候系统的理解有所欠缺。这项工作的总体目标是：1-改进对北冰洋及其周边海域未来海冰状况的预测; 2-查明/研究造成海冰减少的海洋、海冰和大气过程; 3-研究这种变化对大气环流模式和依赖海冰为生的野生动物的影响。这项工作的具体目标是量化对海冰质量平衡很重要的大气环流模式中的小尺度过程。在这个建议中，我们特别强调海冰（铅代表），垂直海洋热通量（通过平流和湍流混合），和大气边界层过程（即（错误）表示的地面逆温的GCM及其对云和表面辐射平衡的影响）。北极气候变化的影响将主要集中在海冰消退对风暴路径和降水模式的影响，以及地理变化和气候变化的时间，以及依赖冰的物种生境的变化。这项工作的完成将导致1-更好地约束未来北极气候变化的预测，2-更好地了解小尺度海洋和大气边界层过程对海冰质量平衡有很大影响，3-更有效的数值解海冰模型，正在实施全球气候模型和加拿大环境部的业务预报模型。该研究计划将使加拿大处于独特的地位，可以更好地评估不断变化的北极以及它如何影响当地海洋生态系统、加拿大北极地区的经济发展以及当地因纽特人，他们的生活方式与冰的存在密切相关。