Mathematical modeling of stored-grain ecosytems: a tool for preserving grain quality

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Globally, about 2.7 billion tonnes of grains are produced annually and stored on farms or at storage facilities. Under ideal storage conditions, grains can be stored safely for several years as grains are durable products; however, improper interactions of physical, chemical and biological factors can spoil grains. The amount of spoilage can be up to 100% in a single unit of storage (e.g., a bin, bag, warehouse, or bunker). Therefore, the long-term objective of our research program is to reduce the qualitative and quantitative losses in stored grains by developing and validating mathematical models of stored-grain ecosystems as innovative stored-grain management tools for supplying safe food for consumers and for increasing income of farmers. To achieve this objective, we will conduct experimental studies and solve partial differentials equations of heat and mass transfer as well as insect movement. Our experiments will focus on filling the data gap where almost no data are available in the literature related to the impact of sub-optimal conditions on the population dynamics of insects and respiration of grains and insects. Experiments also will be conducted on movement of rusty grain beetles and red flour beetles, two most common insects found in Canadian grain, at several gradients of temperature, moisture, and carbon dioxide for determination of coefficients of insect movement to solve the three-dimensional partial differential equation of insect movement using the finite element method. This will helps us integrate our insect movement model with heat and mass transfer models. Full-size bin experiments will be conducted to validate our models. Our research will lead to major advancements towards the understanding of stored-grain ecosystems, allowing prediction and prevention of grain spoilage. This would help in preserving the value of Canada's annual grain crop (worth about15.4 billion dollars) and in maintaining its reputation for marketing high quality grain free of insects, pesticide residues, and mycotoxins to domestic and export buyers. Our results will be applicable globally and will help in enhancing food safety and security.