Using modern genomics to minimize long-term impacts of resource development on Arctic seabirds

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As numerically dominant apex predators, seabirds are key components of Canada's Arctic marine ecosystem. Seabirds and their eggs also are important to the culture and diet of indigenous Arctic peoples. However, Arctic seabird populations are facing multiple simultaneous direct and indirect threats from climate change, shipping and industrial development. Unsurprisingly, many populations are showing signs of stress such as reduced reproductive success or declining numbers. To avoid extinction, wildlife populations must adapt through (1) changes in behaviour or physiology, (2) dispersal, or (3) genetic changes. The capacity for seabirds to adapt through these three avenues is virtually unknown, but it is critical to maintenance of healthy populations. New genomic methods, especially when combined with on-going studies of behaviour and physiology, provide powerful opportunities to determine the long-term sensitivities of Arctic seabirds to climate change and industrial development. We will use genomic, behavioural and ecological data to estimate levels of dispersal, phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation for seven seabird species that Canada has a global responsibility to protect. We will then provide Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) with three main products needed for effective policy development: (1) estimates of population genetic structure and dispersal, for delineating management units and for estimating colony-specific impacts of large-scale mortality during the nonbreeding season; (2) assessments of the long-term sensitivities of populations and species to climate change and industrial development; and (3) maps of the spatial distribution of adaptive variation, for assessing key populations and areas lacking resilience to industrial developments. These products are strategic for ECCC to develop science-based policies for a balanced, socially responsible, pro-active approach to Arctic development and stewardship. The present work also will provide training in highly sought-after skills in genomics, bioinformatics and population modeling for 18 highly qualified personnel.