Balancing risks and benefits in developing seed transfer prescriptions for forestry to address climate change

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We addresses the research topic "Environmental Performance" within the target area "Natural Resources and Energy" by identifying risks associated with climate change, and by developing strategies to mitigate or remediate impacts on Canada's forest resources. We develop climate change adaptation strategies for reforestation with lodgepole pine and white spruce, which are the most important sources of wood and fiber for western Canada, accounting for 55 million m³ of wood for harvest and generating economic activity of approximately ~$10 billion/yr. A primary emphasis of this research is to evaluate risks inherent with adopting management prescriptions of moving population north and upward in elevation in anticipation of climate warming. The research is based on tree ring analysis in long-term genetic field trials established for lodgepole pine in British Columbia and for white spruce in Alberta. This allows us to reconstruct historical climate effects on important traits, such as tree growth, response to drought events and - due to a recent advance in tree ring research - historical frost damage during wood formation, which leaves unique "blue ring" signature. Inadvertent frost damage is one of the key concerns that needs to be addressed before assisted migration can be widely implemented. Here we aim at developing robust seed transfer policy that strikes the right balance between risk of inaction in the face of climate change and the risk of changing well established reforestation policies. Our supporters, the Alberta Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the BC Ministry of Forestry, regulate provincial reforestation and have a track-record of implementing science-based policy. In BC and Alberta, about 150 million white spruce and lodgepole pine trees are planted annually by forest companies and provincial agencies. The proposed project could yield profound benefits to Canada by leveraging this activity to improve the genetic resilience and productivity of planted forests.