Growth and survival of lodgepole pine genotypes under extreme climate events: risk assessment and climate change adaptation strategies

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We addresses the research topic "Environmental Performance" within the target area "Natural Resources and Energy" by identifying risks associated with climate change, and by developing strategies to mitigate or remediate impacts on Canada's forest resources. We take advantage of a unique research opportunity to study effects of climate variability and climate change on lodgepole pine forest, one of the commercially most important natural resources in western Canada. The research is based on destructive whole-tree sampling of long-term genetic field trials that were destroyed by the mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia. Whole-tree stem analysis allows us to reconstruct historical climate effects on important traits, such as tree volume increments and carbon sequestration. The genetic trial design allows us to draw conclusions for a representative set of genotypes replicated over a wide range of planting environments, and to identify resilient and productive genotypes for reforestation. By drawing on two independent experimental and empirical research approaches, genetic provenance testing and dendrochronological reconstructions, we aim to develop dependable estimates of risks associated with climate change, and to deliver a knowledge base for public policy development. Our supporting organization, The BC Ministry of Forests, develops and implements provincial policies and regulations regarding selection, testing, and distribution of tree seed for reforestation and has a track-record of implementing science-based policy. Approximately 80 million lodgepole pine seedlings per year are planted in British Columbia, and the proposed project could yield profound benefits to Canada by leveraging this activity to improve the genetic resilience and productivity of planted lodgepole pine forests.