Balancing risks and benefits in developing seed transfer prescriptions for forestry to address climate change

我们通过确定与气候变化相关的风险，并通过制定减轻或补救对加拿大森林资源影响的战略，在“自然资源和能源”目标区域内解决“环境绩效”的研究课题。我们制定了气候变化适应策略，以重新造林黑松和白云杉，这是加拿大西部最重要的木材和纤维来源，占5500万立方米的木材采伐和产生约100亿美元/年的经济活动。**本研究的主要重点是评估在预期气候变暖的情况下，采用人口向北和海拔向上迁移的管理处方所固有的风险。这项研究是基于对不列颠哥伦比亚省的黑松和阿尔伯塔省的白云杉进行的长期遗传田间试验的年轮分析。这使我们能够重建历史气候对重要特征的影响，如树木生长，对干旱事件的反应，以及-由于树木年轮研究的最新进展-木材形成过程中的历史霜冻损害，这留下了独特的“蓝环”特征。在广泛实施辅助迁移之前，需要解决的关键问题之一是无意的霜冻损害。**在这里，我们的目标是制定强有力的种子转移政策，在面对气候变化不作为的风险与改变既定再造林政策的风险之间取得适当的平衡。我们的支持者，艾伯塔省农林部和不列颠哥伦比亚省林业部负责管理省级再造林，并在实施基于科学的政策方面有着良好的记录。在不列颠哥伦比亚省和阿尔伯塔省，森林公司和省级机构每年种植约1.5亿棵白云杉和黑松。拟议的项目可以通过利用这一活动来提高人工林的遗传恢复力和生产力，从而给加拿大带来深远的利益。

We addresses the research topic "Environmental Performance" within the target area "Natural Resources and Energy" by identifying risks associated with climate change, and by developing strategies to mitigate or remediate impacts on Canada's forest resources. We develop climate change adaptation strategies for reforestation with lodgepole pine and white spruce, which are the most important sources of wood and fiber for western Canada, accounting for 55 million m³ of wood for harvest and generating economic activity of approximately ~$10 billion/yr. ** A primary emphasis of this research is to evaluate risks inherent with adopting management prescriptions of moving population north and upward in elevation in anticipation of climate warming. The research is based on tree ring analysis in long-term genetic field trials established for lodgepole pine in British Columbia and for white spruce in Alberta. This allows us to reconstruct historical climate effects on important traits, such as tree growth, response to drought events and - due to a recent advance in tree ring research - historical frost damage during wood formation, which leaves unique "blue ring" signature. Inadvertent frost damage is one of the key concerns that needs to be addressed before assisted migration can be widely implemented. ** Here we aim at developing robust seed transfer policy that strikes the right balance between risk of inaction in the face of climate change and the risk of changing well established reforestation policies. Our supporters, the Alberta Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the BC Ministry of Forestry, regulate provincial reforestation and have a track-record of implementing science-based policy. In BC and Alberta, about 150 million white spruce and lodgepole pine trees are planted annually by forest companies and provincial agencies. The proposed project could yield profound benefits to Canada by leveraging this activity to improve the genetic resilience and productivity of planted forests.