Adaptation of Arctic marine mammals to climate warming

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The increasing effects of global warming are greatest in polar environments. How will Arctic marine ecosystems respond to the increasing physical affects of global warming and will change occur gradually or will it come quickly? Using environmental changes associated with rising temperatures as the explanatory variable and changes in distribution and abundance of marine mammals as the dependent variable, I propose to study their interaction. I will measure energy and fitness connections to population changes by looking at how energy moves through the food web and at which trophic level is energy concentrated. To understand fitness, I will use genetics and reproductive success. The idea is to apply this knowledge to understand energy and fitness changes associated with global warming and Arctic marine mammals. I plan to build models to predict how marine mammal populations will change in numbers and where they will live. Models will integrate knowledge and help us understand whether Arctic marine ecosystems will resist change, change quickly, or change in a constant manner with global warming. To better understand these questions I will use satellite telemetry, biological collections from Inuit harvests, and diet studies. Combining this information into mathematical models provides testable predictions on how climate change will unfold in the arctic. Understanding how polar marine ecosystems change will help us to develop adaptive conservation and management programs for whales, seals, and the Inuit that rely on marine mammals for food and cultural sustenance.***The goal is to identify and assess conservation practices that will improve marine mammal population persistence under future climate change and increased human development. Climate changes will affect marine mammals that are of increasing concern to the average Canadian and particularly of cultural significance to Inuit. As such, the research is anticipated to garner appreciable attention from the public and the media. I will parlay the conservation results of this research to the public, stakeholders, and marine mammal recovery teams. The proposed research significantly advances understanding of nonlinear dynamics of ecosystem resilience and the mechanism of how marine ecosystems respond to perturbation. The research is well integrated with local communities and collaborates extensively with northerners. The health and well-being of Northern communities will be assisted by proposed research results that will provide forecasts of how specific population/species changes in distribution and abundance will occur, thereby providing management and conservation options to maintain subsistence culture and socio-economic security.