Synthesis of marine time series to detect, understand, and predict benthic community responses to a rapidly warming Arctic

综合海洋时间序列来检测、理解和预测底栖群落对快速变暖的北极的反应

• 批准号: 2232596
• 负责人: Matthew Fitzpatrick
• 金额: $ 61.27万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-03-01 至 2026-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2232596&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Synthesis; marine; time; series; detect

1. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions of the planet and long-term observations have revealed that natural systems in this region are undergoing substantial changes. Observed changes have been especially pronounced in the Pacific Arctic, where increases in ocean temperature, decreases in sea ice extent, and changes in currents have been observed alongside changes in the composition of ecologically important biological communities that live in sediments on the seafloor. Changes in these communities likely will have cascading impacts on fisheries and seabird and marine mammal populations that rely on food from the seafloor. The goal of this project is to examine coincident changes in seafloor biological communities and physical environments as recorded in samples collected over the last several decades to understand relationships between environmental change and ecological responses in the Pacific Arctic. In particular, this project will test how well observational data collected annually for decades can be used to make forecasts of how marine systems are likely to change in response to environmental change. A secondary goal is to assess how well ongoing sampling efforts may be able to detect biological changes in these systems. Ecological and environmental changes in the Pacific Arctic also will have immediate economic and social implications, especially for Indigenous communities that rely on subsistence harvests of walruses and bearded seals. By helping to improve our ability to detect, explain, and predict changes in these systems, this project will support effective management and sustainable use of marine resources, while mitigating social impacts on local communities. This project also will combine research and education by providing interdisciplinary training in polar biology, modeling, statistics, and data science to students at all levels and from backgrounds that are historically underrepresented in these fields, including interns from rural Appalachia, undergraduates, and an early career scientist. Lastly, we will share research outcomes and acquire shared knowledge from Indigenous communities in the region.2. Biological communities found in seafloor sediments of the Pacific Arctic are highly productive, influence ecosystem processes, and are critical food resources for marine mammals and birds. These seafloor communities are also sensitive to environmental change, and recent observations indicate shifts in taxonomic composition associated with increases in ocean temperature, decreases in sea ice extent, and changes in currents. Changes in Pacific Arctic seafloor communities are likely to have cascading impacts on seabird and marine mammal populations, ecosystem function, and fisheries. However, improving our ability to explain and predict responses of Arctic marine systems to rapid climate change remains a substantial challenge. In remote, data-limited ecosystems like the Arctic seafloor, where direct observation and experimentation are difficult, correlative models are often used to link biological patterns to environmental gradients and to make forecasts of ecosystem trajectories. However, few studies have performed rigorous tests of the ability of these so-called “space-for-time substitution” approaches to predict changes in community composition, in large part due to a lack of contemporary datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage. At the same time, we lack a basic understanding of the role of thresholds, where incremental changes in the physical environment result in sudden and fundamental changes to community composition and ecosystem function, in driving biological responses to environmental change. To address these hurdles, this project will (1) analyze multi-decadal time series of paired biological and physical observations that have been collected in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas since the 1980s to characterize relationships between the physical environment and responses of ecologically important marine seafloor communities; (2) test the extent to which observational time series can inform forecasts of changes in these systems; and (3) evaluate the efficiency of ongoing sampling efforts to detect biological changes. In doing so, this project will improve our ability to explain, detect, and predict biological responses in changing Arctic environments and address associated knowledge gaps using novel modeling methods. The Arctic is one of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet and associated impacts on high biomass seafloor communities in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas will have immediate economic and social implications for potential northward fisheries expansion as well as co-management of subsistence harvests of walruses and bearded seals by Indigenous communities. Our goal is to improve our ability to detect, explain, and predict changes in these systems, and in doing so we will support effective management and sustainable use of marine resources, while mitigating social impacts on local communities. In addition, we will integrate research and education in multiple ways by: (i) mentoring summer interns from underrepresented groups attending a local college in rural Appalachia; (ii) providing research experiences to undergraduates through an existing Research Experiences for Undergraduates program; and (iii) training of a graduate student in spatial modeling, marine science, and global change ecology. These programs will provide interdisciplinary training that spans polar biology, spatial modeling, statistics, and data science for students from backgrounds that are historically underrepresented in these fields. Lastly, we will share research outcomes and acquire shared knowledge from Indigenous communities in the Bering Strait region.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

1。北极是地球上最快的变暖区域之一，长期观察结果表明，该地区的自然系统正在发生重大变化。观察到的变化在太平洋北极特别明显，海洋温度的升高，海冰范围的降低，并且在居住在海底沉积物中的生态重要生物学群落组成的情况下观察到了电流的变化。这些社区的变化可能会对依靠海底食物的渔业和海鸟和海洋哺乳动物种群产生级联影响。该项目的目的是检查在过去几十年中收集的样品中记录的海底生物学群落和物理环境的一致变化，以了解环境变化与太平洋北极地区的生态反应之间的关系。特别是，该项目将测试几十年来每年收集的观察数据如何使海洋系统如何改变环境变化的森林。第二个目标是评估正在进行的采样工作能够检测到这些系统中的生物学变化的能力。太平洋北极的生态和环境变化也将具有直接的经济和社会影响，特别是对于依靠海象和胡须印章的生存收成的土著社区。通过帮助提高我们检测，解释和预测这些系统中的变化的能力，该项目将支持有效的管理和可持续使用海洋资源，同时减轻社会对当地社区的影响。该项目还将通过为各个层面的学生以及历史上在这些领域的代表性不足的背景提供极地生物学，建模，统计和数据科学方面的跨学科培训，将研究和教育结合起来，包括大约来自阿巴拉契亚，本科生和早期职业学家的实习生。最后，我们将分享研究成果，并从该地区的土著社区获得共同的知识。2。在太平洋北极的海底沉积物中发现的生物群落具有很高的生产力，影响生态系统过程，并且是海洋哺乳动物和鸟类的关键食物资源。这些海底社区也对环境变化敏感，最近的观察表明，与海洋温度升高，海冰范围降低以及电流变化相关的分类学组成的变化。太平洋北极海底社区的变化可能会对海鸟和海洋哺乳动物种群，生态系统功能和渔业产生层叠影响。但是，提高我们解释和预测北极海洋系统对快速气候变化的反应的能力仍然是一个重大挑战。在直接观察和实验很难的远程，数据限制的生态系统中，通常使用正确的模型将生物模式与环境梯度联系起来并进行生态系统轨迹的预测。但是，很少有研究对这些所谓的“空间替换”方法的能力进行了严格的测试来预测社区组成的变化，这在很大程度上是由于缺乏足够空间和临时覆盖的当代数据集。同时，我们对阈值的作用缺乏基本的理解，在这种情况下，物理环境的渐进变化导致社区组成和生态系统功能的突然和根本变化在推动对环境变化的生物学反应中。为了解决这些障碍，该项目将（1）分析自1980年代以来在北白令和楚科奇海中收集的配对生物学和物理观察的多年时间序列，以表征生态上重要的海洋海藻社区的物理环境与反应之间的关系； （2）测试观察时间序列可以在多大程度上告知外交交换这些系统变化的程度； （3）评估正在进行的采样工作以检测生物学变化的效率。这样一来，该项目将提高我们解释，检测和预测北极环境中生物学反应的能力，并使用新颖的建模方法解决相关的知识差距。北极是地球上最快速变暖的地区之一，对北部白令和丘奇海的高生物质海底群落的相关影响将对潜在的北向渔业扩张以及共同管理的北向渔业扩张以及对海象和胡须密封的生产收获的潜在经济和社会产生影响。我们的目标是提高我们检测，解释和预测这些系统中的变化的能力，在此过程中，我们将支持有效的管理和可持续使用海洋资源，同时减轻社会对当地社区的影响。此外，我们将通过以下方式以多种方式整合研究和教育，（i）来自代表性不足的小组的心理暑期实习生就读于阿巴拉契亚州的一所当地大学； （ii）通过现有的本科生计划的研究经验提供研究经验； （iii）对空间建模，海洋科学和全球变化生态学的研究生培训。这些计划将提供跨学科的培训，这些培训涵盖了极地生物学，空间建模，统计和数据科学，这些学生来自这些领域中人数不足的背景学生。最后，我们将分享研究成果，并从贝林海峡地区的土著社区获得共同的知识。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准，被视为通过评估而被视为珍贵的支持。