Invasion biology in the bigger picture

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The extent of species dispersal, mediated through human activity, is unprecedented and likely to increase as global traffic increases. Although most non-indigenous species (NIS) do not cause obvious problems, some species cause immense environmental and economic damages. Understanding which species are likely to cause problems, where they spread, what are their impacts and how to manage them is critical. Thus, my long-term objective is to understand and predict all stages of the species invasion process, across suites of species, at regional, national and international scales, using the best data available. I will examine biological invasions in the bigger picture, building on the substantial advances that have occurred over the last decade. We are at an exciting nexus, where numerous predictive models exist for each stage of the invasion process and simultaneously, databases and “big data” have become increasingly available. I will focus on three themes in this proposal - 1) Synthesis of predictive models (across invasion components), 2) Generalized invasion models (across species), 3) Invasions at the international scale. ******In Theme 1, my lab will synthesize a full risk model across all the stages of invasion, and develop an Invasive Species Risk Assessment (ISRA) tool kit, which will allow the predictive models scientists have developed over the last decades to be more accessible to resource managers and policy makers as well as academics. Such synthesis is critical, as ultimately, invasion risk is not solely dependent on any single stage, but must integrate across the invasion stages and consider the severity of impact. To build ISRA, we will test hypotheses on how invasion components interact and what they tell us about underlying processes. Once built, ISRA will allow diverse sources of data to be better utilized and more systematically applied. The generalized invasion models developed in Theme 2 will allow analyses of dozens to thousands of species simultaneously, and will identify and prioritize species and areas with high risks of invasion, directing monitoring and management efforts. To analyse NIS in the international context in Theme 3, we will forecast changes in global shipping (a primary vector of NIS) to 2050, and explore the consequent redistribution of species. We will also explore the effects of international cooperation and political borders on the spread of NIS. This research will allow countries to identify potential improvements in policy and capacity building, as well as any barriers to effectively implementing NIS policies (e.g., coordination problems between countries or insufficient realistic decision-support tools). *****