Data, uncertainty, and ecological forecasting of biological invasions

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The processes underlying biological invasions are also important for species occurrences, colonization and biodiversity - three central themes in ecology. Although species dispersal occurs naturally, human activity has increased the extent and rate of dispersal to such a degree that global changes are occurring and natural and human systems are unable to adapt. Scientific consensus and governments worldwide have agreed that invasive species - specifically, those species introduced from other places that cause harm - is currently an environmental priority. Invasive species are now a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, environmental change, and economic damages (e.g., the estimated cost to the US is estimated at $137 billion/yr). Despite the importance of invasions, we typically cannot forecast which species will invade, where or when they will do so, nor what effect they will have on the environment. Thus, it is difficult to know which management actions are warranted and which are not. Ecology could be pivotal for addressing the invasive species issue, but first, we need to bridge the gap between ecological theory and real world conditions, where uncertainty is high, and data limitations are the norm. I will use a combination of mathematical models, field studies, and lab experiments to bridge this gap. I will develop a body of theory to improve predictions about which species should invade, and where they should do so. I will use the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes) invader and the Ontario inland lakes as my test system, but theoretic approaches developed will be generalizable to other ecosystems. My research program will advance ecology by developing the approaches needed to deal with sparse data and high uncertainty for large-scale problem in real systems. These are some of the major issues currently limiting invasion biology and, arguably, most other fields in ecology. Further, my work will allow us to direct monitoring and risk assessments efforts for biological invasions; they will provide the ecological information needed in decision theoretic frameworks and will be useful to guide policy.